Executive Summary

War and Brexit will make the next five years a period of profound risk and uncertainty for UK banks. But other events roiling the global economy—such as recession risk and rising interest rates—may work in favor of banks that can plan ahead to seize unusual opportunities.

Key Question: How can banks successfully navigate the biggest changes within the UK banking sector over the next five years?

KEY STAT: IT spend growth at UK banks is expected to decelerate by 7.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2023, as geopolitical turmoil diverts funds into capital buffers.