In recent years, there has been very little movement in the rankings for total retail sales or total ecommerce. GDP per capita and population tend to determine the country-level rankings for total retail sales. And although ecommerce is a little less predictable, the digital sales rankings have stabilized as well. Several familiar trends remain in place:

• China and the US are so far in front that the status quo at the top will likely remain the same for decades to come.
• India is slowly climbing the list, and Brazil and Indonesia are jockeying for 10th place.
• Besides those standouts, the story has not changed much in recent years—and won’t change much going forward.

Our country-level forecasts now cover 97.6% of global ecommerce sales. Earlier this year we debuted retail and ecommerce projections for 25 additional countries in Europe, 10 in Latin America, and three in the Middle East, bringing our worldwide total to 66 countries. Although the US and China still carry most of the weight, there will be 53 countries with at least $1 billion in ecommerce sales in 2024. Croatiawill be the next to reach that level later this year.

Read the full report, Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update.