The news: Sam’s Club Connect is offering a suite of tools that help advertisers target ads based on machine learning predictions of which members are likely to buy or replace products. The predictions are powered by Sam’s Club’s trove of membership data, along with 400 intent signals.

The retail media network’s tools, dubbed Predictive Precision Targeting, include:

• Predictive Prospect Targeting and Lifetime Value (LTV), which helps brands find and reach high-potential prospects and predicts the 12-month value of those who convert.
• Churn Prevention and Brand Loyalty, which surfaces brand customers prone to lapsing in loyalty so that advertisers can prioritize reaching them.
• General Merchandise Category Predictive Upgrade, which identifies members who may be approaching a replacement window for items with long purchase cycles, such as TVs or gaming consoles.

Sam’s Club also expanded its measurement tool, Omni-Impact, to include more ad channels for a wider view of attribution.

Why it matters: Sam’s Club is seeking to turn its membership data into a vehicle to drive more sales and find new customers.

Retail memberships have typically given advertisers valuable first-party data, allowing brands to understand the audiences that already buy their products and re-target them. By pairing its membership data with predictive technology, Sam’s Club wants to use this information to drive additional purchases that might otherwise be out of reach.

For instance, Predictive Prospect Targeting and Lifetime Value (LTV) identifies shoppers whom advertisers are not yet converting but could be interested in their products. P&G tested the tool for its Cascade Platinum Plus detergent pods, targeting 800,000 high-potential households. The campaign drove a 2.3x increase in marketing effectiveness, and the model’s prediction that buyers would spend 71% more than their initial purchase was 94% accurate, according to Walmart.

Sam’s Club’s move comes as merchants and suppliers are gaining new access to first-party data. Last month, Walmart announced that its Scintilla data platform will expand to Sam’s Club in 2027, giving brands more transaction data, pre-purchase behavioral data, and AI to turn this information into strategy. With more insights and a member base that we expect will span more than 32 million US households by the end of this year, Sam’s Club could power even more sales for advertisers.

Implications for marketers: Membership-based retail chains are becoming more attractive to brands looking to drive incremental growth. In particular, new AI and machine learning technology is helping these retailers get more from their pools of first-party data.

At the same time, predictive AI, while powerful, is only probabilistic, so marketers shouldn’t assume predictions will become actual sales. One useful hedge is using predictive ad targeting to offer deals, not just products. In fact, free items, loyalty rewards, and offers and deals are the three most valuable features of personalization to US shoppers, per VML.

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