The news: Agentic commerce adoption is proceeding slower than expected, with shoppers more comfortable using AI for research and discovery rather than completing purchases.

Our latest forecast expects AI platform-driven sales to rise to $19.74 billion this year, roughly 4% below our December 2025 projection. We also lowered our growth outlook for 2027 and beyond, reflecting both the limitations of shopping on platforms like ChatGPT and consumers’ tepid interest in outsourcing their purchases to an agent.