The data: Retailers reported a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decrease in merchandise theft incidents between 2024 and 2025—the first decline in both metrics in several years, per NRF’s “The Impact of Retail Theft and Violence” report.

Zooming out: The improvement follows years of retailers sounding the alarm over theft.

• Target in 2023 once projected a $500 million profitability hit from theft in a single year and closed nine stores it said were compromised by organized crime, citing a 120% rise in theft-related incidents over five months.
• Walmart, TJX, Foot Locker, Home Depot, and Ross Stores all cited theft-driven shrink as a growing problem over that period, driving many to implement measures that made the in-store experience less convenient, such as reducing operating hours, locking up merchandise, and adjusting their in-store product selection.

However, those claims later came under scrutiny after NRF later retracted a claim that organized retail crime caused nearly half of 2021 shrink losses, acknowledging flawed analysis. Its own data instead pointed to external theft—a broader category not limited to organized crime—as accounting for about 36% of shrink, with some economists pegging organized crime’s share closer to 5%.

Why this matters: The 2026 data suggests the security measures retailers put in place may be working, or at least contributing to fewer incidents. However, it also raises the question of whether the remedies do more harm than good, particularly in some locations with less crime.

Some retailers appear to think so. About 28% have begun removing measures where crime has fallen, and 26% are investing in technology or staff to improve the customer experience alongside security efforts, per the NRF report.

Implications for retailers: Crime isn’t disappearing, but it is evolving. While shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents fell, NRF found that organized crime groups are shifting toward phone scams, gift card fraud, and cargo theft.

Retailers should similarly adjust their approach, moving from blunt, one-size-fits-all deterrence toward more targeted enforcement. Locking up merchandise and cutting hours can reduce theft, but they also add friction for paying customers who must wait for assistance or find stores closed early. That friction can push shoppers elsewhere, particularly to convenient online options like Amazon and Walmart that offer delivery within hours or, in some cases, minutes.

That’s why it makes sense for retailers to replace broad-based measures with tools that better target the actual sources of loss. For example, video review and repeat-offender tracking can help loss prevention teams focus on the people and patterns driving theft, rather than treating every shopper as a potential suspect. That helps preserve a low-friction shopping experience while still addressing the evolving tactics of organized retail crime.