As you plan for 2027, start with Roundel. Target's retail media network reaches over 100 million Target Circle members with data-driven strategies that expand reach, strengthen brand connection, and drive measurable growth. From discovery to decision, Roundel helps your brand show up in the moments that matter most, because joy is good for business. Learn more.

Marcus Johnson: [00:00:00] As you plan for 2027, start with Roundel. Target's retail media network reach over 100 million Target Circle members with data-driven strategies that expand reach, strengthen brand connection, and drive measurable growth. From discovery to decision, Roundel helps your brand show up in the moments that matter most because joy is good for business.

Marcus Johnson: Hey, gang. It's Thursday, September 24th.

Marcus Johnson: Arielle, James, analysts, welcome to Behind the Numbers, an EMARKETER podcast made possible by Roundel. I'm Marcus, and joining me for today's conversation, we have two people. Let's meet them. Living in New York, EMARKETER senior analyst, Arielle Feger.

Arielle Feger: Hello, Marcus. How are you doing?

Marcus Johnson: Hello. I'm terrific. How are you?

Arielle Feger: I'm doing pretty good.

Marcus Johnson: Good, good. Terrific's too much. I should have dialed it back. There's nowhere- ... can't go any higher now. Based out of Minneapolis, special guest, senior director of the Partner Solutions Group at Roundel, and he leads the team for food and beverage, James Gourde [00:01:00] joins the show. Welcome.

James Gourde: Hi, Marcus.

James Gourde: Good to be with you.

Marcus Johnson: Hello. Thank you so much for taking some time, sir. Uh, anytime we have a special guest from outside the company, we start with a speed intro.

Marcus Johnson: So two questions. First one's just for James 'cause we know Arielle. James, what does your company do, in a sentence, and what do you do for them, in another sentence?

James Gourde: Rondell is Target's retail media business. So in simplest terms, we connect Target guests to the brands they already know and brands that may be new to them through relevant media experiences.

James Gourde: I lead the partner solutions group for food and beverage, and my team works with national brands to connect their business priorities with media strategy, and ultimately help them grow.

Marcus Johnson: Very nice. And second question for both of you, starting with James. What's the most interesting thing you've read, watched, or listened to recently?

James Gourde: Okay, so I am a lifelong Minnesota sports fan-

Marcus Johnson: Okay ...

James Gourde: and, uh... which means, generally, I'm perpetually disappointed. [00:02:00] Uh, the one exception, I've been watching the, uh, WNBA more than ever before. Um- Lucky devil ... and the Minnesota Lynx are really good this year. Yeah. Uh, winning is far more fun. The other thing is, uh, they have a young superstar who I think is gonna be a cornerstone for a long period of time.

James Gourde: W- what's fascinating to me, the WNBA has changed so much in recent years. The game has evolved dramatically. It's more culturally relevant than any befo- any, any time before. And so to me, watching this intersection of culture and media and sports come together has been fascinating. So I'm watching the WNBA.

Marcus Johnson: Very nice. Um, yeah, Mile- Miles you're referring to, I assume.

James Gourde: Olivia Miles. You got it.

Marcus Johnson: MVP race. She's a rookie.

James Gourde: She's

Marcus Johnson: killing it. She's... Your team's r- stacked. Napheesa Collier, Howard. It's infuriating. Um, was it McBride, McBride? Yeah. Caleb McBride.

James Gourde: It, it

Arielle Feger: sounds like you- I didn't know you were a basketball fan, Marcus

Marcus Johnson: basketball, yes, bas- I've tried to turn this podcast into a sports podcast [00:03:00] for years- ... me and Stuart. Basketball, yes. More recently, my dad's coached women's basketball for years and years and years, but- Oh ... in the last three or four years, WNBA Fever fan, and I'm jealous of the Minnesota Lynx 'cause they're an incredible team.

James Gourde: It's been fun.

Marcus Johnson: Good answer. Arielle.

Arielle Feger: I just finished over the weekend the Practical Magic 2 book- Mm-hmm ... uh, which originally was called Book of Magic, but they now are renaming it because the movie is coming out, um, and I'm a big fan of that, uh, entire series. It's really witchy and fun and just is gonna kick me off for fall and, uh, chilly season.

Arielle Feger: So I'm super pumped about that. It was, it was really good.

Marcus Johnson: How, how many books in the series?

Arielle Feger: So there's one, two, th- four altogether. Okay. Um, the original Practical Magic, two prequels, and then this is the sequel.

Marcus Johnson: Okay. I love when you find a good series.

Arielle Feger: Oh, yeah. Yeah. Al- Alice Hoffman is a really wonderful writer.

Arielle Feger: Okay. Would recommend lots of her books. [00:04:00]

Marcus Johnson: Very nice. Very nice indeed. They are the two folks we have joining us for the show, uh, but today's real topic-

Marcus Johnson: Reading the signals, how seasonal moments reveal what consumers want next. All right, gang. Holidays are getting stretched out. No one's surprised by that. Prime Day is now a week. Why are we still calling it Prime Day? Black Friday quickly turned into the Cyber Five, Six, Seven, however many we have now.

Marcus Johnson: Halloween items appear in the summer. Summerween was a thing for a moment. That was a stretch. Uh, it's just a tough word. Uh, Christmas stuff is on the shelves in September, at least, maybe earlier. Toys, uh, are bought year-round, not just in December. Uh, over half of adults, we were doing a kidulting episode recently, over half of adults, um, adult-only households, over half of them, uh, the toy sales are from adult-only households in the US.

Marcus Johnson: Um, it's warmer in November now. Places you'd need a [00:05:00] surprise pair of shorts. Uh, things are, are changing, and seasonality doesn't, I don't know, doesn't mean what it, what it used to mean. And Arielle, you, you brought this up when we were having a conversation about what to chat about. You were saying, "What does seasonality even mean anymore?"

Marcus Johnson: And I said, "Today, we're gonna try and figure that out and more." So actually, Arielle, I'll start with you for the first one. What does seasonality mean today? Um, uh, especially as shopping behaviors and consumer needs become less tied to a single moment on the calendar

Arielle Feger: Yeah, I mean, it, it, they're blending a lot, right?

Arielle Feger: The seasons are certainly, you know, as you touched upon in terms of both shopping moments, whether, you know, that's Prime Day kind of getting longer or extending the holiday season a little bit ahead, or with the weather that's changing. You know, climate is different and maybe you still need shorts in November.

Arielle Feger: So there's a lot of blending going on. I think what isn't changing is people want to celebrate, and people want to buy things [00:06:00] that make them feel grounded in the season, whichever season that is. Whether that's- Mm ... you know, um, some really fun florals for spring, groundbreaking, that's a Devil Wears Prada reference.

Arielle Feger: Um, or, you know, something, again, practical magic. I'm looking forward to fall. I'm going pumpkin spice. I want my, you know, cinnamon candles. Um, so I think that desire to have, you know, fun celebratory things is definitely still there. It's just the periods of time that may be shifting a little bit, and that's what I think retailers need to kind of respond to.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah. Yeah, it's nice to feel the season. J- James, how about for you?

James Gourde: Yeah, I, I think that's right. The, um, the season is, is bigger than any one moment. You know, my, my definition of seasonality is anything you can put on a calendar and it shows up again and again. It's a reoccurring moment. It's something you can point to.

James Gourde: Back to school, Halloween, the holidays, uh, the new year reset. You know, you mentioned summerine. [00:07:00] Um, but Halloween isn't... It's not just October 31st. The behavior starts much earlier. In fact, um, Targets set some, not all, but some Halloween candy as early as August in this year And so seasonal moments, y- you can point to them because they pull people out of their everyday routine.

James Gourde: You know, we, we mark these moments with celebrations, with gatherings, um, with resetting. Um, these are moments that make us feel special, and so that creates a need for shopping. People are starting to look for gifts, for food, um, ideas for entertaining, home decor, apparel. It, it ranges the entire store, and that's why Target is such an interesting destination for seasonal moments.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Arielle Feger: I really like the way that you said pulling people out of their, their everyday- Mm-hmm ... routine, and I think that's such a good way to frame what seasonality is and how to think about it, um, in a [00:08:00] really actionable way.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

James Gourde: I think that's right. And look, there, there's nothing wrong with the everyday.

James Gourde: The everyday is fine. Um, you know- We love the everyday. We love the everyday. Uh, stock-up trips or, um, you know, just your routines, like, that's all a huge part of retail but it, it tends to be a little bit more mundane. Um, it's the seasons where I think it gives, it gives brands and it gives retailers a lot more liberty to make different choices.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm. Uh, how... what are we seeing that's telling us that, um, consumer behavior, the priorities are changing, James, and how can the seasonal moments help brands figure out where the new growth is, is coming from?

James Gourde: Yeah. Here, here's how I would sum it up, is, um, if I'm shopping differently because of the occasion, I'm more open to making a different choice.

James Gourde: And so seasonal occasions- Mm ... really do change behavior, and the occasion changes are, are what matters. And so now guests are thinking about things differently. They're thinking [00:09:00] about brand differently. They're thinking about quality, um, where they choose to shop. Um, they're thinking about, uh, convenience.

James Gourde: You know, one example that's really tangible for me is seasonal candy. Um, Target does way better in seasonal calen- candy than we do every day, and so that, that proves to us that consumers are making different choices with, with their retailers.

Arielle Feger: Mm-hmm.

James Gourde: And so they're already out of their normal routine, and that creates a ton of openness to new possibilities.

James Gourde: New brands, different products. We see switching behavior, different pack sizes or use cases for the same product. And so that opportunity of a guest getting out of the everyday creates a tremendous opportunity for brands. And so this for us is a great time to introduce something new while the consumer is already behaving a little bit differently.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm. Speaking about the opportunity for brands, um, the seasonal moments change what you, what you need in that moment, [00:10:00] um, from brands. What, James, what role can brands play in helping people make those moments easier and also make them more meaningful?

James Gourde: Yeah, I mean, seasonal shopping, it just feels different.

James Gourde: Um, you know, the, the stores look different. There's a, there's a buzz or there's an energy a- a- about it. I've been in, I've been at Target for 24 years, and I still look forward to that part of every single season But at the same point in time, that excitement and that expectation creates more pressure for the consumer.

James Gourde: Uh, time is constrained. A lot of people are dealing with, uh, budget constraints as we deal with, with the impact of inflation. There's also this feeling of you wanna get it right for your family or for your loved ones. Mm-hmm. You want the perfect meal. You don't just want something that's okay. You want, uh, the gathering that is gonna m- gonna meet the moment.

James Gourde: And so the opportunity for a brand, in my opinion, is make it easy. Um, help solve some of that [00:11:00] tension that the shopper is feeling. Simplify a choice, and give them an idea that fits what they're already trying to achieve.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Arielle Feger: Yeah. I, I really agree with that. And, and I also, uh, in addition, I think it's like this balance between, um, you know, convenience and making it easy, but also remembering that joy is such a big part of these types of moments.

Arielle Feger: And you really wanna remember these are things that people are spending a little bit more on maybe that they wouldn't normally spend that month. Um, and so I think keeping that joy, whether it's through, like, very much, like, fun in-store displays, um, or social media moments or something like that, I think there's just a, an inherent magic to certain seasons or certain events.

Arielle Feger: And I think that it's, it's a little bit intangible, but it's also really possible if you are thinking about your merchandising and how you're kind of appearing in certain [00:12:00] places.

Marcus Johnson: Hmm. Yeah, joy's a great word. Um, and we're just talking about meaningful. You're kind of playing with house money, uh, during these seasonal moments as well because it, they are already meaningful for people.

Marcus Johnson: Uh, like I, I, I didn't like going to the shops with my family when I was a kid. I just wanted to play, you know, video games or be out with my friends when I was young. But going to the shops with my family during Christmas, and me and my dad going shopping with my siblings for my mom, and then vice versa, they were such special trips.

Marcus Johnson: And so it's already meaningful. Um, so you're already, um, in a good state, um, right off the bat. Let's talk a bit about some, some examples. Uh, James, so c- c- can you give us a couple or an example of a brand that, that has uncovered a signal during a seasonal campaign and was able to use that learning to think differently about what comes next?

James Gourde: Yeah, I, I, absolutely. The, um, the other thing that comes to mind just based on your last narrative there- Mm ... Marcus, was this idea- Please ... of, of an emotional connection at retail.

Marcus Johnson: Yes.

James Gourde: And so I [00:13:00] think, like, the, the opportunity for brands in these seasonal moments is how you become part of someone's story with that emotion and that storytelling that, like, you don't get with the everyday trip.

James Gourde: And so to me, the everyday purchase, that's, it's, it's almost habitual In many cases it's on repeat, sometimes it's on subscription only. You're not even really thinking about it. Where the seasonal purchase, there's so much intention behind it.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

James Gourde: Um, and one category- Mm ... that comes to mind for me is ch- is chocolate.

James Gourde: Like, it's a, it's a terrific seasonal category, and that occasion changes the job to be done. It can be a stocking stuffer, it can be a teacher gift, it can be for entertaining, um, a little bit of self-purchasing or indulgence. And so every day you might just grab whatever is close to the check lane, but in a seasonal moment you're trying to be far more thoughtful and intentional with it.

James Gourde: And so what we found is that guests want something that feels a little bit more elevated and a little bit more special. And so [00:14:00] the need in the eyes of the consumer is like, "I still want this to be quick and easy, but I want there to be some thought behind it." Mm-hmm. And so help me look thoughtful without requiring a ton of work on my behalf, and that's the mindset that this particular brand can solve for.

James Gourde: So Ghirardelli was a perfect partner for us. They had a holiday challenge of driving d- uh, sales and traffic. They also wanted to strengthen their digital shelf. But from a marketing standpoint, they considered a broader full funnel marketing approach. And so they don't- didn't wanna just show up when someone was already searching for the brand.

James Gourde: They wanted to show up earlier when the decision was starting to take shape. Mm. And what we saw was strong performance, like a 72% year-over-year increase in return on ad spend. But the more interesting learning from my opinion is that 52% of the guests that they reached were new to the brand itself. And so the bigger insight here wasn't just simply, well, the campaign worked.

James Gourde: [00:15:00] The, the bigger learning is seasonal discovery moments introduce a, a completely new audience to this particular brand.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm. Yeah, Aria, I li- I like, I mean, g- even going back all the way to the emotional connection piece, but I think almost the stakes are higher now in a lot of respects because of what James was saying.

Marcus Johnson: There is this dichotomy kind of maybe similar to when you watch something now. If you're gonna stream something, it's low stakes. It's fine, I'm not paying anything. I already s- you know, subscribed to the stuff. I don't have to leave my house, whatever. When you go to the movies, there's this expectation now, and it does seem less

Marcus Johnson: That's the kind of break from the norm maybe that James is talking about, where a lot of things now are so easy the, the, um, the everyday purchases, the things that you can just set, forget, and they show up. And so when it is a seasonal moment, when you are ready to discover something, um, there is a, a heightened sense of awareness and expectation.

Marcus Johnson: Uh, what are your thoughts, uh, uh, here?

Arielle Feger: Um, I mean, I, I completely agree and, and, you know, thinking back about, you know, what James was saying about kind of, [00:16:00] um, that, that meaningfulness and, and, you know, wanting things to be right, and I thought about even, like, how powerful that is with word of mouth, right?

Arielle Feger: Um, we know- Mm-hmm ... word of mouth is just such an incredibly important part of the journey, and I think, I, I mean, I, I can count how many times, you know, I've, you know, noticed a, a, a decoration or, like, a Halloween decoration or, um, a new food that I was trying at a friend's house and I'm like, "Oh, I love this," and they're like, "Oh, I got it, got it here, got it there."

Arielle Feger: And so just that alone, again, it gets you out of the, the norm. I'm seeing something different. I'm like, "Where do I get that?" There's just such a, a wonderful, uh, opportunity for people to kind of be able to spread that beyond retailers' own channels, you know?

James Gourde: I th- I think that's true. You know, the other thing that I'd add is, you know, maybe it's the, the pandemic that we all, you know, just lived through or maybe it's how social media has changed, [00:17:00] um, our expectations, but there, there is pressure and power behind these gatherings when you get your families together.

James Gourde: Like, there's, there's so much stress, stress, there's so many expectations. I think it's, it's that elevated nature that, um, has really changed the consumer psyche when it comes to, to the seasons.

Arielle Feger: Yeah. And, and back to what James said, i- if, if a retailer does it right or a brand does it right, it just ... and it makes their lives easier, it's just that much quicker for them to go back and say, "Okay, well, this really worked out for me last time, um, so I'm gonna, I'm gonna pick the same brand, retailer, whatever again."

Marcus Johnson: Yeah, yeah. We talked at the very top about seasons stretching, uh, and, and spilling into each other. One thing that seems harder for folks to, uh, I don't want to say wrap their head around, but maybe, um, think about differently is the idea that a seasonal campaign, uh, it's not just about the short term.

Marcus Johnson: It's not just about that moment or the month or two after, you know, what happened and then let it go and move on. [00:18:00] Um, James, how, how should or could marketers think about seasonal campaigns as more than just short-term performance, and what kinds of insights can they carry forward into other campaigns?

James Gourde: Yeah, I mean, h- here's the thing with, with my advice to any brand, uh, on this topic would be don't, don't treat the seasonal campaign as though it's a one-and-done moment. I- in the example that I just shared with you around chocolate, you've now acquired a ton of new guests and your audience is completely different.

James Gourde: So now we have to be asking ourselves, how do I earn the next purchase? Um, could the, the Christmas or holiday opportunity lead into Valentine's Day or Easter or another occasion? Um, or can you transition them from a holiday purchaser, someone who just considers your brand when it's elevated, to an everyday purchase?

James Gourde: And so what you have to understand is why they bought. Was it for a gift? Was it entertaining? Was it for indulgence or was it your [00:19:00] first touch point with that brand? And so the idea here is to use that motivation to determine how and when to reconnect. Mm-hmm. And so the bottom line is the next campaign you should start way smarter because of what you learned this time around.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

Arielle Feger: Yeah, I completely agree. I think the, getting the first purchase is, is not easy for, for, you know, obviously. But the repeat purchase is that, that golden key, right? Um, and so what are the things that you can be doing to fit back into their lives whenever? You know, is that an e- can you make that an everyday purchase?

Arielle Feger: Can you make it ... Or maybe you're just the brand that they go to during seasonal moments, during holidays, during celebrations. Um, those are both wins. Yeah. So I think it's what can you do to fit more easily into those moments?

Marcus Johnson: This is probably a terrible comp, but I think of it like learning a language.

Marcus Johnson: You'll, you c- it's easy to prepare [00:20:00] for the first thing that you say to a person, but then they respond and then you freak out because you hadn't prepared for the response. And so thinking more, more of, like you said, not just the first interaction, but what happens after that and then that and then that, and what's their experience gonna be with the brand after the first interaction?

Marcus Johnson: Um, James, what separates a useful seasonal insight from a one-off campaign result?

James Gourde: Yeah, you know, at this point, um, the, the ball is really back in, in the marketer's court. Um, and what you're gonna do with it is kind of up to you. Um, we know that seasonal moments, they, they change behaviors, they change motivation, they introduce new stresses, um, they create openness to, to new brands.

James Gourde: Um, hopefully you just created a really positive brand impression. The, the challenge in front of you is, is what do you do with it? Can you turn that seasonal behavior into a new routine? Can you make a one-time purchase a longer term [00:21:00] relationship? Or does the brand, you know, how can you keep that still a very positive experience that you had and parlay it into whatever comes next?

James Gourde: So the, the key is like, don't waste the moment by, by treating it strictly as a one-off event. Um, you don't wanna win that seasonal moment and then lose the consumer.

Marcus Johnson: Mm.

James Gourde: So the opportunity isn't just winning that season, it's how do you build a relationship that'll last well beyond it?

Marcus Johnson: Excellent note to end on.

Marcus Johnson: Uh, that's all we've got time for, unfortunately. I went lightning fast, but thank you so much to my guests for making today's episode. With me, thank you first to Arielle.

Arielle Feger: Thank you so much. This was a really great conversation.

Marcus Johnson: It's indeed. And of course to James.

James Gourde: Thanks for having me. This was fun, you guys.

Marcus Johnson: Yes, sir. Thank you for being here. And thanks to the production crew, Stuart and Lance helping us out with this one, and thanks to everyone for listening in to Behind the Numbers, the marketing podcast made possible by Roundel. I hope to see you tomorrow for another episode of Behind the [00:22:00] Numbers.