Key stat: Just 15% of US parents of school-aged children planned to do their back-to-school spending in early July this year, down from 28% in 2025 and roughly even with 2019's 14%, according to a July report from Deloitte.

Beyond the chart:

• Parents have learned to wait, and 72% of US adults now say they track price trends over time before deciding to buy, especially on big-ticket items, according to CivicScience.
• Meanwhile, the dollars have not moved, only the calendar. US back-to-school spending will reach $85.42 billion this year, per our forecast, as families protect education budgets and hunt for value rather than cut back.

Use this chart: Drop this in your seasonal planning review to push back on the idea that back-to-school keeps creeping earlier. Show the early-July collapse when someone argues for a June launch, and use the early-August rebound at 31% to defend peak-window budget.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Data Drop: Back-to-School Forecast 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• US Ecommerce 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)

Methodology: Data is from the July 2026 Deloitte report "2026 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey." 1,207 parents of school-aged children, with respondents having at least one child attending school in grades K to 12 this fall were surveyed online during May 22 to May 29, 2026, by an independent research panel. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample.