The news: Consumers will spend $95.8 billion online in October, an 8% increase YoY, per Adobe, as sales events from Amazon, Walmart, and other retailers reshape the holiday season.

Shoppers are expected to spend $9.9 billion during Amazon Prime Big Deal Days alone, a 9.2% increase YoY.

October push: October sales are fast becoming embedded in the promotional calendar as retailers look to keep Amazon from scooping up a greater share of holiday spending.

• Target will hold its Target Circle Deal Days sale October 6 and 7, the same days as Amazon’s event, with early access on October 5 for Target Circle 360 members.
• Walmart’s Fall Deals event will run from October 5 to 11 and feature discounts in-store and online; unlike Amazon’s and Target’s events, Walmart’s sale is open to all shoppers, not just Walmart+ members.

Zoom in: The appeal of these October sales is rising as shoppers look to score deals on both essentials and discretionary goods.

Nearly two-thirds of US consumers are considering shopping Amazon Prime Big Deal Days, with roughly half of those shoppers saying that inflation, gas prices, and concerns about the economy are making them more likely to shop the event, according to Numerator. High-income households are especially keen to find savings and are 34% more likely than low-income households to consider buying a private-label product from Amazon and 30% more likely to stock up on items they regularly purchase.

Some of that spending will trickle down to other retailers: Two-thirds of those who plan to shop Prime Big Deal Days also plan to buy from other October sales, with Walmart and Target emerging as leading destinations.

Implications for retail: Shoppers may not be using October sales to do their holiday shopping, but their behavior during them will set the scene for what happens later in Q4. We expect holiday retail sales growth to lag the annual average for the second year in a row as consumers redirect spending toward essentials and require steeper discounts before purchasing.

Go further: Read our Holiday Shopping 2026 report.