Last updated September 28, 2026

Macro Lessons from Q2

• Amazon, Walmart, and Target are making faster fulfillment more efficient. Amazon shortened shipping distances and reduced touches per package, Walmart's fee-based fast deliveries reached an all-time high of 37% of store-fulfilled orders, and Target deployed new inventory-planning tools as same- and next-day fulfillment surged.
• Value-seeking lifted off-price in Q2, but the deepest-discount players led in traffic gains. Ross visits jumped 16.4% YoY, while T.J. Maxx and Marshalls traffic hovered around year-earlier levels—still well ahead of traditional apparel’s 3.5% decline in the quarter, according to Placer.ai. Within the sector, Ross made its logistics network more efficient, and Burlington opened its largest automated distribution center, while TJX stepped up merchandise-planning controls after assortment mistakes hurt Marmaxx.
• Home Depot stepped up its push for Pros, while both it and Lowe’s made faster fulfillment a bigger priority. Home Depot expanded its professional business with the purchase of HVAC distributor Mingledorff’s and reorganized its contractor operations to better coordinate customer relationships, products, and fulfillment. Home Depot and Lowe’s also reached fulfillment milestones, shortening delivery times across products from parcels to major appliances.
• Digital is becoming an advantage for retailers with stores, not an alternative. Digital outpaced overall growth at several major retailers in Q2: Best Buy’s domestic online revenues rose 5.1% on a comparable basis to $3 billion, Dick’s said its ecommerce business grew faster than the company overall, and Costco reported strong digital gains. Retailers with large store networks used digital capabilities to extend their reach, while stores supported discovery, service, and fulfillment.

Key Earnings Season Events

• Amazon delivered a strong performance, aided by Prime Day sales, steady ecommerce growth, and a fast-growing ad business. Its push into grocery, everyday essentials, and faster delivery is driving more frequent purchases and helping attract routine spending.
• Walmart gained share in Q2 despite posting its slowest US comparable sales growth in over six years, as the retailer’s ecommerce business and price rollbacks helped offset a decline in in-store sales.
• Target posted its second-straight quarter of sales growth, a sign that efforts to revamp its merchandising and stores are bringing back shoppers. The retailer benefited from nearly $1 billion in tariff refunds, which were used to lower prices and protect margins.
• Dollar Tree and Dollar General gained market share as their strong value proposition drove more spending from middle- and high-income shoppers and their core low-income customers.
• Best Buy topped expectations, with growth across most of its major categories, led by home theater and computing, as well as emerging areas like AI glasses, trading cards, and health rings.
• As budget-conscious consumers prioritize value, market share is shifting from traditional grocers like Kroger and Publix to retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Costco, which have distinct advantages ranging from low prices and membership benefits to free grocery delivery.

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