The news: Kroger is using predictive creative scoring to determine the likelihood of driving ecommerce sales before activating campaigns.

The retailer, working with Vidmob and MMA Global, was able to forecast ecommerce conversion with 81% accuracy, according to a new report.

Behind the numbers: Kroger and its research partners analyzed 1,934 video and image assets from the retailer’s Meta and DV360 campaigns to identify the creative attributes most tied to online conversions. The companies then tested models trained on 2025 data against a separate period in Q1 2026 to determine whether they would accurately predict creative performance. The goal was not only to identify best practices and insights to shape creative strategy but also to create a framework that Kroger could use to connect creative decisions with business outcomes.

The study’s results were significant.

• Roughly half of Kroger’s media spend went to low-performing creative before the experiment, resulting in higher CPMs and lower conversions.
• Reallocating spending toward higher-scoring creative (as determined by the model) lifted conversions by up to 2.2 times, without having to create new assets.
• Creative assets that followed the framework’s guidelines had conversion rates that were four times higher across Meta and DV360, at up to a 70% lower cost per conversion, than content that did not.
• Campaigns that showcased “authentic human experiences,” like people sharing food, drove larger increases in ecommerce sales than creative featuring product-first or transactional imagery.

Implications for marketers: AI tools have made it easier than ever for marketers to produce creative on a large scale, but simply having more assets doesn’t necessarily lead to better results. Predictive creative frameworks can help brands and retailers shape their messaging and content to better align with shoppers’ preferences and maximize the impact of their ad dollars.

Kroger’s experiment suggests more rigorous frameworks are possible with the help of AI, which could help marketers overcome some of the factors limiting the use of creative intelligence. Around 40% of US marketers view creative as important, but say measurement gaps prevent it from meaningfully influencing investment decisions, while 1 in 5 see creative intelligence as a major untapped opportunity, according to an EMARKETER and Perion survey.