The news: JD.com is considering a £2 billion ($2.69 billion) bid for UK ecommerce platform The Very Group, previously known as Shop Direct, per Sky News.

A deal would give JD access to an established UK retailer with 4.4 million customers and a broad assortment spanning fashion, toys, and electrical goods. The business could complement—or potentially integrate with—its recently launched UK site, Joybuy.

However, The Very Group faces headwinds, with fashion and sports sales down 4.5% YoY in the 39 weeks ending March 28, per Retail Insight Network. Those results capture only the early impact of disruption from the war in the Middle East, which has weighed on UK consumer confidence and added pressure on value-oriented retailers.

The context: A deal would mark JD’s third attempt to buy its way into the UK market. It abandoned talks to acquire Argos from J Sainsbury last year and walked away from a potential takeover of Currys the year before.

Like peers PDD and Alibaba, JD is looking overseas for growth as domestic demand weakens and regulatory scrutiny intensifies. We expect JD’s ecommerce sales growth to slow to 3.2% this year, down from 5.3% last year.

Implications for retailers: Unlike some competitors that have relied on ultra-low prices to drive rapid growth, JD has taken a longer-term approach in the UK. It has invested in logistics infrastructure, hired experienced talent from retailers like Lidl and Amazon, and established a £37 million ($49.8 million) headquarters in Westminster to strengthen its local presence. Acquiring an established player could further accelerate that strategy.

Even so, the backdrop remains challenging. UK businesses face rising costs alongside softening demand. Only 16% of companies say they don’t expect disruption from the war in the Middle East, per the British Chambers of Commerce, as higher energy bills, shipping disruptions, and input costs weigh on operations.

Inflation and rising food prices are also reshaping consumer behavior, according to the British Retail Consortium and Opinium.

Even if JD can push past those pressures, it still needs to stand out from Amazon, which remains deeply entrenched in the UK. We expect Amazon will account for a 28.2% share of UK ecommerce spending this year, thanks to its value and convenience positioning.

While acquiring The Very Group could accelerate JD’s entry by pairing an existing customer base with its own infrastructure, gaining meaningful share in a crowded, slowing market will be an uphill battle.