Whenever survey findings generate buzz, I think of the old newsroom adage my journalism professor Walt Harrington repeated in just about every class: “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” The same lesson applies to consumer behavior: What people say and how they behave don’t always align.

Surveys tell you what consumers are thinking

I’ve been working my way through a pile of holiday surveys in my inbox. Read together, they paint a picture of shoppers who are spending selectively, trying new ways to shop, and turning to credit cards or other financing options to cover their purchases.

Take Deloitte’s data, which suggests spending on retail goods will jump 10% this holiday season, even as spending on holiday activities drops 4%. Where people begin their search is expected to shift, too. Bain’s Holiday Shopping Outlook found that roughly one-quarter of online shoppers plan to kick off their search using generative AI. And ICSC offers a window into how shoppers are thinking about their budgets: Nearly 80% expect to spend the same as or more than last year, while almost half say they’ll need to borrow money to cover the cost.

These numbers give us clues about how consumers are approaching the season. Shoppers may feel squeezed and plan to seek bargains—yet still go into debt to buy gifts. Why? People are far too complicated for a multiple-choice survey to capture fully.

You can see the same disconnect across the broader economy. Consumer sentiment has soured as shoppers grow more pessimistic about their finances—but they’re still pushing retail sales above expectations. It’s a good reminder that feeling worse about finances doesn’t always mean spending less.

Follow the money

Whenever a provocative survey comes out, I’m quick to remind my colleagues of the divide between intent and behavior. When what people say conflicts with what they do, follow the money.

Take gas prices. It seems logical that a sharp spike would push shoppers away from physical stores and toward ecommerce to save on fuel. Ask consumers, and that’s exactly what some say they’ll do.

An Omnisend survey conducted shortly after the war in Iran sent gas prices soaring found that 30% of consumers planned to shop online more to save on gas.

But I tested whether that was true by examining the US Census Bureau’s retail sales data for nonstore sales and the weekly gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration. Nonstore sales are primarily ecommerce and offer the closest monthly read we have on online shopping.

Gas prices have experienced several surges since 2010, but the data shows little consistent relationship between those increases and nonstore sales growth. For a closer look, I focused on four prominent, event-driven shocks: the early days of the Arab Spring in 2011, the economy reopening in 2021, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the Iran war in 2026.

Comparing the percentage-point changes in year-over-year growth rates over each period showed me that what really happened wasn't as cut-and-dried as the survey made it seem. In 2011, gas-price growth jumped 24 percentage points, while nonstore sales growth increased just 2 points. During the 2021 recovery, gas-price growth surged 59 points, but nonstore sales growth fell 17 points, although pandemic-related comparisons make that period unusual. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, gas-price growth increased 20 points while nonstore sales growth declined 7 points. And during the 2026 surge amid the Iran war, gas-price growth jumped 49 points, while nonstore sales growth was essentially unchanged.

To be fair, each gas-price spike occurred under different economic conditions, and fuel costs are far from the only factor driving online sales. But the lack of a consistent pattern makes sense when you consider how people actually behave. We may say higher gas prices will push us to shop online, but most of us aren't calculating the fuel cost of every car trip or comparing it with what we paid a year ago. And even when higher prices prompt us to change our habits, shopping online isn't necessarily the alternative. We may combine errands, skip unnecessary trips, or cut spending elsewhere. Saving on gas may be a nice bonus of shopping online, but it's unlikely to be a primary driver of ecommerce growth.

Use surveys to understand intention, not predict behavior

None of this means surveys are pointless. They tell us what is stressing consumers out and where they hope to cut corners, which is useful for retailers to know.

A survey will tell you that shoppers plan to spend less, look for deals, or try a new way to shop. But the operative word there is “plan.” Even the best-laid plans can fall apart the moment emotion and holiday pressure kick in. Real receipt data shows whether those plans translate into changes in spending—and what compromises are made along the way.

As the holiday season unfolds over the next few weeks, the real test will be: what goes into the cart, where it comes from, and what gets charged. And if you’re going to remember one thing, let it be this: When intentions and actual behavior diverge, follow the money.