The news: While a rising number of forecasts expect solid holiday season growth this year, that strength won’t tell the full story of consumer demand.

• Bain & Co. expects retail sales to rise 4.5% YoY in the final two months of the year, ahead of last year’s 3.5% pace, with in-store sales growing 2.5% and nonstore sales—which are largely online but also include other channels such as mail order—increasing 9.0%.
• That’s just ahead of our forecast, which expects 4.1% overall growth over the same period. We expect a slightly different mix of channels, with physical retail sales growing 3.4%, boosted largely by auto and gas, and ecommerce increasing 7.0%.