The news: Retailers are adjusting how they staff up for the holiday season.

• NRF expects retailers will add 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers in the final two months of the year, roughly in line with the estimated 356,000 hired last year.
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts 450,000 seasonal retail jobs in Q4, down 2.5% from last year, which was already the smallest seasonal hiring increase since 2008—and 15.0% below 2024 levels.
• However, seasonal job postings on Indeed across all industries were up about 10% YoY as of September 30, despite several large retailers posting fewer seasonal roles, per Indeed Hiring Lab.

Zooming in: As more holiday sales shift online, retailers are changing the mix of seasonal roles they hire for. Consumer-facing retail jobs have fallen from about 67% of seasonal postings in 2019 to just over 61% this year, per Indeed. Meanwhile, warehouse jobs have grown from 3.5% to nearly 9%.

That shift mirrors ecommerce’s growing share of holiday sales, which has risen from 13.9% in 2019 to a projected 21.5% this year, according to our forecast.

The bigger picture: Despite the overall increase in seasonal postings on Indeed, some large retailers are scaling back their holiday hiring plans. Dick’s Sporting Goods, for example, expects to hire about 8,400 seasonal associates across its store banners, 40% fewer than the 14,000 it hired last year. But last year may have been an anomaly; in 2024, Dick’s hired 8,000 holiday workers.

Other retailers are holding hiring steady. Michaels plans to add more than 10,000 seasonal team members, matching last year’s target. The craft retailer also noted that about half of its seasonal in-store hires last year moved into regular positions, suggesting seasonal hiring can also serve as a pipeline for permanent staff.

Indeed’s data point to a similar shift: Among large employers that have reduced seasonal hiring, seasonal roles fell from 34% of job postings last year to 20% this year. Part-time positions, meanwhile, grew from 38% to 49% of postings, while full-time roles held steady at about 20%.

Implications for retail: Retailers are worried about what holiday shopping will look like this year. CEO confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, is at its lowest level since Q2 2025. But retail sales rose 6.3% YoY in September and were up 4.7% over the first nine months of the year. Retailers need to balance immediate holiday staffing needs with the flexibility to retain workers longer if demand holds up into the new year.