Three of the least likely scenarios in social media would also be the most disruptive: a regulatory ban on addictive feed design, a Facebook revival, and an AI chatbot building a $100 billion ad business. None of them is likely. Each one exposes a tension already at work, from how regulators treat engagement mechanics to how much advertising a chatbot can actually carry.

"If the EU were to ban infinite scrolling, it seems pretty clear that that would significantly curtail the amount of time people spend watching these kinds of videos," said our analyst Max Willens on a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers." Willens and two other analysts walked through three "what if" predictions on the episode.

What if the EU bans infinite scroll?

The European Union's preliminary finding that Meta violated the Digital Services Act puts infinite scroll, the endless feed that keeps users engaged, in regulatory crosshairs. The EU specifically cited concerns about auto-playing video, ceaseless push notifications, and infinite scroll as problematic design features.

Meta faces fines of up to 6% of its global turnover for non-compliance, roughly $12 billion based on last year's revenue. The exposure is not confined to Europe. Meta has already lost a similar case in New Mexico, where a judge is set to determine remedies that could include eliminating infinite scroll.

"Their margins are so healthy and so strong that it is certain that were this to come to pass and the EU to drop the hammer down on them, that they would just say, 'Fine,'" Willens said. "The core of the business is just that every swipe up inside of Instagram or Facebook brings more ads, it brings more opportunity to shop, it brings more opportunity to discover stuff."

If infinite scroll disappears, platforms would need to pivot dramatically. TikTok might lean harder into shopping through TikTok Shop. Instagram could emphasize messaging features. Facebook might prioritize Groups or Marketplace. The most likely scenario, according to Willens, is that Meta would use AI to compress multiple swipes worth of content into longer video blocks, technically complying with regulations while maintaining engagement.

What if Facebook becomes cool again?

Facebook has made several moves over the past 18 months to recapture its original appeal, according to our analyst Rahul Chadha. These include streamlined creator payouts, guaranteed payments for creators with large followings on other platforms, and algorithm changes to help small creators build audiences.

The platform has also introduced UX improvements like the Friends tab, which surfaces content from actual connections rather than algorithm-driven recommendations. Facebook has attempted to resurface features like the "poke" and claims to be down-ranking unoriginal content and low-effort reposts.

The moves are showing up in EMARKETER forecasts. EMARKETER reversed Facebook's engagement declines in its Q4 2025 forecast update, projecting time spent growth of 4.3% year-over-year in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which would settle daily average time spent around 34 minutes in 2026.

"The moonshot I can see bringing this full circle for them would be if alphas start ironically embracing Facebook, and the ironic use translated into real use," Chadha said. Users have relegated Facebook to utilitarian functions like Marketplace and community groups rather than content consumption. A resurgence would require overcoming its reputation as a repository of "AI slop and boomer humor."

What if OpenAI hits $100 billion in ad revenue by 2030?

OpenAI reportedly told investors it would generate $100 billion in advertising revenue by 2030, up from approximately $2.5 billion this year. EMARKETER's forecast tells a different story: while US marketers will spend $68 billion on AI advertising overall by 2030, most of it will flow through traditional search channels like Google rather than standalone chatbots

"We think that the total market for in-chatbot advertising in 2030 will be about $5.4 billion," said our analyst Nate Elliott. "So we don't think they're gonna come anywhere close to that."

Reaching $100 billion would require several conditions. ChatGPT would need to reverse its current trend of losing AI market share and become as dominant as Google is in search. AI would need to significantly cannibalize traditional search query volume. And the platform would need a massive ad load, essentially one ad in every turn of every commercially oriented conversation.

OpenAI's own user math is just as strained. Getting to $100 billion assumes 3 billion weekly users by 2030, per the company's projections. It has 900 million today, and it has not announced crossing 1 billion despite sitting at that number for roughly five months.

"It took several years for the search engines to figure out which ad format was going to work for everyone involved," Elliott said. "Facebook ads were terrible for the first five or seven years that they were sold." OpenAI launched advertising without extensive testing of different formats, placements, or creative approaches, skipping the experimentation phase that proved critical for other platforms.

The implications extend beyond OpenAI. A Google search is roughly 23 to 24 times more likely to send traffic to a website than a ChatGPT prompt, according to Ahrefs. "The real concern is the standalone chatbots," Elliott said, noting the threat to small and mid-sized publishers already seeing enormous traffic drop-offs

Listen to the full episode.

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