The news: Goldman Sachs analysts have predicted a slight economic boost if Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November, and a 0.5 percentage point drop in the US GDP if Former President Donald Trump wins, per Bloomberg.
How it got there: Goldman economists gamed out the two different scenarios, taking into consideration impacts from changes in immigration, tariffs, tax cuts, and the two candidates’ known policies.
- Goldman found that Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration slowdown would decelerate labor growth until 2026, which they said would outweigh any economic benefits from tax cuts.
- In contrast, impacts from Harris’s policies would be minimal.