The forecast: Following a year of lockdown-related growth in 2020, retail ecommerce sales in Western Europe will continue to rise through 2025. By the end of next year, ecommerce sales will account for 14.8% of total retail sales in the region and hit nearly $660 billion.

Dive deeper:

• This is a significant upward revision from our previous forecast, which estimated that ecommerce sales soared by 26.3% in 2020 and would remain below $580 billion in 2022.
• Ecommerce’s share of retail sales has risen dramatically since the onset of the pandemic, jumping from 10.1% in 2019 to 13.4% in 2020. That figure will grow to 14.4% this year.
• The pandemic led retailers to quickly build out infrastructure to support the increase in ecommerce sales. The advent of this infrastructure, in turn, has accelerated Western Europe’s shift toward ecommerce.
• As much as it grew in 2020, ecommerce will make up a smaller share of retail sales in Western Europe this year than in Asia-Pacific (where that share will hit 29.6%) or in North America (where it will be 15.2%).

Looking ahead: Retail ecommerce will continue to grow in Western Europe, both in total sales and as a share of the overall retail market. Three years from now, digital sales will cross the $700 billion mark, and in 2025, they will make up $758.46 billion or 15.9% of Western Europe’s retail sales.