The news: Sales are expected to grow faster during the Cyber Five than the overall holiday season, according to Bain & Company’s latest forecast. The firm expects sales to rise 8.75% YoY over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend, compared with 4.5% growth during the entire holiday period.

That tracks with our own forecast, which calls for the Cyber Five to account for a growing share of online spending. We expect Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales to rise 7.3% this year and account for 16.5% of online holiday sales.

What it means: Rising inflation and sustained financial pressures are making shoppers more inclined to concentrate their holiday spending on promotional periods like Black Friday and retailers’ October sales.

• Just 10% of US consumers do not plan to shop at any sales events during the holiday season, down from 25% in 2025, according to Bain.
• At the same time, intent to shop during major holiday promotional periods has risen YoY. Nearly three-quarters of US consumers expect to shop Black Friday sales, up from 55% last year, while 60% planned to shop Amazon Prime Big Deal Days and other October promotions, up from 52% in 2025.

Implications for retailers: Shoppers will be spending more selectively this holiday season as they balance their desire to celebrate with the need to control costs. Retailers must be prepared for a potentially sluggish start to the festive period as customers wait for bigger discounts before pulling out their wallets.

Go further: Read our Holiday Shopping 2026 report.