Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say.

• Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast.

As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results.

In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix.

Erica Culley, senior director of shopper marketing at Chobani, told us about their focus on incrementality and what it takes to use data in order to deliver media that's genuinely useful.

Q. What do you think will define the next phase of commerce media growth, particularly for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands?

A: Three things: measurement, consolidation, and AI. Measurement because the industry has been running on platform-reported metrics that don't always tie back to actual business outcomes, and brands are increasingly pushing for standardized, cross-retailer ways to prove incrementality, not just impressions. Consolidation because the sheer number of retail media networks has become unmanageable for CPG teams to plan and execute against individually at scale, and we'll see brands and agencies push for more unified buying and reporting. And AI because it enables us to act on all this fragmented data at the speed the retailers expect.

Q. As commerce media becomes more sophisticated, how are you thinking about measuring success beyond traditional performance metrics like return on ad spend (ROAS)?

A: At Chobani, we're focused on incrementality that connects back to our business objectives. For the past few years, we've been building and implementing an internal media mix model (MMM) to standardize how we evaluate performance across partners and tactics, which gives us an objective view of efficiency and effectiveness. Now, we're building on that foundation to optimize media mix not just for ROAS, but against our actual growth priorities.

Q. AI is making commerce media more personalized than ever. How can brands embrace these capabilities while maintaining consumer trust?

A: AI is an incredible tool, but it's only a tool. The brands that get this right are using it to be more relevant, not just more targeted. There's a difference between using data to deliver media that’s genuinely useful and using it simply to deliver more. Trust holds when personalization feels like the brand paid attention; it breaks when it feels like the brand is following you around. That distinction must be a deliberate choice brands make, rather than a byproduct of what the technology is capable of.

Q. Consumers increasingly expect personalized experiences but also want transparency and control over their data. How should brands strike that balance?

A: Transparency has to be part of the value exchange. If a consumer understands why they're seeing something and gets real value out of it, that personalization builds trust. If it feels opaque or extractive, that trust erodes fast, regardless of how good the targeting is. Brands that are upfront about what they're doing with the data, and give people real control over it, end up earning more license to personalize, not less.

Q. What's one change you'd most like to see from the commerce media ecosystem?

A: I'd like to see retail media networks lean into being growth partners instead of just media sellers. Retail media has become a genuinely profitable line on retailers' P&Ls, but it also has real potential to drive true incremental growth for both the retailer and advertiser. That potential is still underused. Right now, a lot of brands are wary of growing investment expectations without a consistent value exchange to match. The networks that focus on generating real impact through smart strategy and optimization, rather than just selling inventory, are the ones that will earn the spend long-term.

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