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EMARKETER

Back-to-School Forecast 2025

Seasonal Back-to-School Spending Settles Into a Period of Muted Growth

Report by Sarah Marzano  |  Apr 22, 2025
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About This Report
Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.
Topics
Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
United States

Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.

This deck covers:

  • US retail and ecommerce sales forecasts for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season
  • Learnings from the 2024 back-to-school season
  • Data and insights to help brands, retailers, and marketers fine-tune 2025 back-to-school plans

This deck can help you develop commerce strategy and allocate budget for campaigns (retailers and brands)

Here’s what’s in the full report

2files

Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

10charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Charts in This Report

Back-to-School Growth Slows for the Second Consecutive Year, Syncing With Full-Year Retail Growth Rates (billions in US back-to-school season retail sales, 2021-2025; % change in US back-to-school season vs. total full-year retail sales, 2021-2025)K-12 Spending Closes In on $50 Billion as It Continues to Drive the Majority Share of Total Sales (billions in US grades K-12 back-to-school season retail sales, % change, and % of total back-to-school season retail sales, 2021-2025)
College Spending Levels Out After a Volatile Period of Post-Pandemic Back-to-Campus Splurges and Inflation Spikes (billions in US college-bound back-to-school season retail sales, % change, and % of total back-to-school season retail sales, 2021-2025Back-to-School Trends Settle Below Full-Year Retail in Both Ecommerce and Physical Channels (% change in US back-to-school season vs. full-year retail sales, by channel, 2023-2025 )
Ecommerce Plays a Larger Role in Back-to-School Purchases, Driven by Categories With Higher-Than-Average Penetration (ecommerce % of back-to-school retail sales, by school type, vs. ecommerce % of full-year retail sales, 2021-2025)Ecommerce Will Drive More Than 80% of YoY Dollar Growth (billions in US back-to-school physical retail vs. retail ecommerce sales, 2021-2025)
Full-Year Category Trends Offer Valuable Insights to Shape and Optimize Back-to-School Strategies (US product categories whose full-year sales performance will top the back-to-school average, 2025) ​Mass-Merchant Retailers Dominated 2024 Back-to-School Shopping Plans (% of US parents, May 2024)
US Parents Did Their Back-to-School Shopping Earlier in 2024 Than in 2023 (% of total spending on back-to-school products by US parents, by shopping period, 2023 & 2024 )The Desire to Spread Out Expenses Is Driving More Consumers to Start Back-to-School Shopping Earlier (% of US consumers who are doing back-to-school shopping early to spread out their budget, 2020-2024 )

authors

Sarah Marzano

Contributors

Sky Canaves
Principal Analyst
Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Cindy Liu
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Emma Noyes
Graphic Designer, Data Visualization
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor
Emman Velasco
Chart Editor
Ali Young
Senior Copy Editor and Manager of Content Operations
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