The news: Amazon sellers are more confident about their Prime Day performance this year despite the sale’s earlier timing, according to a Modern Retail report.

How we got here: Sellers have a few reasons to be optimistic.

Tariff concerns have eased. Unlike last year, when sellers faced 145% duties on China imports and broader uncertainty about the Trump administration’s tariff policies, merchants have more clarity—and lower costs—this Prime Day. While the sale’s earlier timing created some logistical challenges while rising fuel costs are pressuring margins, sellers overall are more confident about their ability to plan promotions and inventory.

Demand appears strong. Separate surveys from Omnisend and Numerator point to healthy interest in shopping Amazon’s Prime Day sale. More than half of consumers surveyed by Omnisend (55%) plan to shop Prime Day this year, up from 45% who shopped the sale last year. Households plan to spend $187 on average, according to Numerator, which would be roughly 4% higher YoY.

Earlier sales could boost overall spending. Moving the sale to late June could enable brands to capture spending ahead of July Fourth and peak summer vacation season, as well as increase sales for seasonal categories like outdoor furniture.

However, shoppers’ early enthusiasm could be dampened by lackluster deals. Rising costs are causing some sellers to either sit out the sale or implement the minimum markdown required to qualify for Prime Day promotional badges, which could turn away deal-seeking shoppers. Higher prices could also limit demand: Amazon agency CrunchGrowth expects unit sales among the brands it works with to decline despite a 4% to 5% projected increase in dollar sales, founder Phil Masiello told Modern Retail.

Implications for the retail industry: Despite the change in timing, participation in this year’s Prime Day is set to increase as price-sensitive shoppers use tentpole events to find deals and justify spending. We expect Amazon’s US Prime Day sales to rise 7.1% this year to $15.68 billion, making it a crucial gauge of demand heading into the second half of 2026.