The forecast: In 2021, Amazon will account for 41.4% of all US retail ecommerce sales. The tech giant will contribute more than 50% of US growth in online sales from 2019 to 2021. We estimate Amazon’s ecommerce sales will rise by $168.53 billion in that time frame, to reach a staggering $386.40 billion by the end of this year.

A deeper dive:

• While many retailers saw a frenzy of pandemic-driven ecommerce growth over the past 18 months, Amazon remains the dominant etailer and will earn more than $2 of every $5 spent shopping online in the US this year.
• Its closest US competitor is Walmart, but with 7.2% of the ecommerce market, the big-box store doesn’t hold a candle to Amazon and its mammoth share.
• Much of Amazon’s growth is fueled by consumer electronics sales, which made up $94.40 billion of Amazon’s gross merchandise value in 2020, according to Comscore data cited by J.P. Morgan.
• The company also has the market for books and magazines cornered, pocketing 80% of those online sales last year, per Comscore.

Looking ahead: Though spending behaviors may look as if they’re returning to the pre-pandemic normal, Amazon’s ecommerce sales will keep on growing. We estimate that by the end of 2022, the company will rack up $463.10 billion in US ecommerce sales.