The news: Amazon Ads designated prediction market brands as purveyors of gambling, subjecting them to a new raft of advertising restrictions. Under its policy update, companies like Kalshi and Polymarket won’t be able to advertise in Amazon’s core retail platform.

For other Amazon properties, such as Prime Video, prediction market brands will need to:

• Prove they're licensed by a regulator to receive verification from Amazon.
• Refrain from targeting ads to regions (such as states) where gambling ads are restricted and to consumers under the legal gambling age.
• Exclude creative depictions of people under the age of 25, irresponsible gambling behaviors, and misleading claims.

Why this matters: Amazon’s updated classification is a blow to prediction market brands, which have insisted that their products are event contracts, not gambling. A gambling label poses much stricter regulations around user access, as well as negative public perceptions.

Brands like Kalshi and Polymarket have launched massive marketing campaigns to win over everyday consumers, and Amazon’s designation marks a significant setback. Amazon accounts for 14.1% of US digital ad revenues—the third-largest share of any company, behind only Google and Meta—per our forecast.

Having to jump through new hoops to reach millions of people across Amazon’s streaming platform, home devices, and other properties will slow prediction brands’ efforts to become household names. An outright ban on showing up in its massive ecommerce marketplace will be particularly challenging.

Implications for the ad industry: Amazon is setting a hardline precedent that could curb budgets for a big-spending category. Prediction market brands spent nearly $200 million in digital ads during the first seven months of 2026, per the American Gaming Association. If these companies face continued gambling designations and subsequent restrictions, their overall advertising presence could shrink.

Even a patchwork of differing classifications could impede the category’s ability to wield large omnichannel budgets. For instance, in Google’s ad ecosystem, these brands are considered purveyors of financial products, yet the NFL views them as sports gambling companies and has therefore banned them from advertising at games and during broadcasts. The impending influx of Democratic lawmakers may lead to more states doling out the gambling designation and its morass of advertising requirements.

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