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Archive for March, 2011

Television Ad Spending Bounces Back, Virtually Unaffected by Online Growth

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Print and directories show biggest losses in ad revenues

NEW YORK (March 29, 2011)—Television advertising spending has bounced back from the recession, growing 9.7% to $59 billion in 2010, and its steadying share of overall US advertising revenues suggests TV has been largely unaffected by the dramatic growth of online advertising, according to an upcoming report by eMarketer.

This year, growth in television advertising will slow to 2.5%, bringing total TV spending to $60.5 billion. Television’s share of US ad dollars is expected to rise to 39.1% in 2011, up from 38.6% in 2010, eMarketer estimates. While this growth in market share can mostly be attributed to the recovering economy, it also suggests that the growth of online advertising spending has come at the expense of other media, such as newspapers, magazines and directories—not television.

“TV advertising is on course to return to prerecession levels,” said eMarketer CEO and co-founder Geoff Ramsey. “While the growth of online advertising has been robust, it hasn’t stopped brand advertisers from keeping the bulk of their budgets flowing through TV sets.”

eMarketer, which formed its forecast through a meta-analysis of data aggregated from research firms and other organizations that track advertising spending, estimates online advertising accounted for 16.9% of major media ad spending in the US last year, up from 15.4% in 2009. This year, eMarketer estimates the internet’s share of overall major media ad spending will grow to 18.4%.

Between 2009 and 2015, eMarketer expects online advertising to gain more than 10 percentage points in its share of all major media ad spending. In 2010, the internet surpassed newspapers as the second-biggest advertising medium after television.

TV will continue to see the greatest share of all ad dollars in the US, with its slice of ad spending holding steady around 39% through 2015. Radio and outdoor will similarly hold flat shares of total ad spending.

Other media will suffer declines in share as spending, like consumption, shifts to the internet. The big losers will be print, including newspapers and magazines, which will lose a combined 9.3 percentage points of market share between 2009 and 2015. Directories will see their share of all ad dollars more than halved over the same period.

Advertising on the radio suffered during the recession, along with all media, but eMarketer estimates it grew 7.2% in 2010 to reach $15.3 billion. Ad spending on digital radio sites such as Pandora remains small but is growing quickly. eMarketer estimates digital radio ad spending grew 28.1% to $600 million in 2010, and spending is expected to double from $800 million this year to $1.6 billion by 2015.

Other Key Findings:

  • Despite the economic recovery, aggregate spending on major media is still not expected to reach prerecession levels through 2015.
  • Online advertising spending is expected to eclipse print spending in 2013, when combined US print ad revenues at newspapers and magazines drops to $32.8 billion—compared to $36 billion in US online ad revenues.
  • Meanwhile, US online ad revenues at magazines grew 14.6% to $2.2 billion in 2010, while print revenues at magazines fell to $14.7 billion, down 5% from $15.5 billion in 2009.
  • Online newspaper revenues are expected to grow 8.6% to $3.3 billion in 2011, up from $3 billion in 2010. Print newspaper revenues will fall 6% to $21.4 billion in 2011, down from $22.8 billion last year.

About eMarketer
eMarketer is the authority on digital marketing, media and commerce, offering insights essential to navigating the changing, competitive and complex digital environment. By weighing and analyzing information from different sources, eMarketer provides businesspeople, marketers and advertisers with the most complete view of digital marketing available.
www.eMarketer.com

Media Contact:
Clark Fredricksen
Vice President, Communications, eMarketer
Tel. 212-763-6056
Twitter

Posted on March 29, 2011.    

eMarketer Webinar: The Future of US Retail Ecommerce

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Jeffrey Grau

To listen and watch playback of the webinar, The Future of US Retail Ecommerce, click here.
You can view the PowerPoint deck below.

View more presentations from eMarketer.

Key takeaways include:

  • Why ecommerce sales are outperforming store sales
  • Major trends that will fuel future ecommerce growth—from mobile commerce, to group buying to augmented reality tools
  • How web shopping behavior and attitudes have evolved and the implications for online marketers

About Jeffrey Grau

Jeffrey Grau covers retail ecommerce in North America for eMarketer. In addition to building ecommerce forecasting models for these markets, he writes on topics such as multichannel retailing, online holiday shopping, social commerce and mobile commerce. Jeffrey is quoted frequently in the press and is in demand as a speaker at digital and industry conferences.

Sponsored by Coremetrics.

Posted on March 29, 2011.    

Healthy Growth for Ecommerce Sales in 2010

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Growth rates will taper as online retail matures

NEW YORK, NY (March 17, 2011)—After strong growth in 2010, the turnaround for online retail sales is expected to continue this year, according to a new forecast by eMarketer.

eMarketer estimates US retail ecommerce sales forecast to grow 13.7% to $188.1 billion in 2011. Over the next four years eMarketer expects double-digit growth to taper off as continues to mature.

According to the US Department of Commerce, US retail ecommerce sales–excluding travel, digital downloads and event tickets–reached $165.4 billion last year, for 14.8% growth over 2009.

“Two major trends that will fuel online buying growth are mobile commerce and daily deal sites like Groupon,” said Jeffrey Grau, eMarketer principal analyst and author of a forthcoming report on US retail ecommerce. “Both opportunities are expected to have strong sales growth over the next five years.”

eMarketer’s US retail ecommerce forecast model measures the market from both the retailer and consumer sides. This online retail ecommerce sales forecast is based on an analysis of the latest historical retail ecommerce estimates from the US Department of Commerce, as well as macroeconomic trends and research from firms that track ecommerce sales.

As ecommerce sales rise, so will the number of Americans contributing to that total. eMarketer estimates 87.5% of US internet users ages 14 and older, or 178.5 million people, will browse or research products online this year. Of that group, 83% will make a purchase online, for a total of 148.1 million online buyers this year. By 2015, 170.3 million people, or 76.3% of the online population, will make a purchase on the web.

“Most of the growth in ecommerce is coming from incumbent online buyers shifting more of their spending from stores to the internet rather than from the spending power of new online buyers,” said Grau.

About eMarketer
eMarketer is the authority on digital marketing, media and commerce, offering insights essential to navigating the changing, competitive and complex digital environment. By weighing and analyzing information from different sources, eMarketer provides businesspeople, marketers and advertisers with the most complete view of digital marketing available.
www.eMarketer.com

Media Contact:
Clark Fredricksen
Vice President, Communications, eMarketer
Tel. 212-763-6056
Twitter

Posted on March 17, 2011.    

Facebook to Top Yahoo! in US Display Market, As Google Looms

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AOL continues display decline

NEW YORK, NY (March 1, 2011)—Facebook will pass Yahoo! as the leader in the US online display advertising market this year, according to new estimates by eMarketer.

The social network’s share of the $10.1 billion US display ad market will grow to 21.6% of overall revenues in 2011, up from a 13.6% share in 2010 and a 7.3% share in 2009.

Display revenues at Yahoo! are expected to grow 16% to $1.65 billion in 2011, after the company saw 13.1% growth in display in 2010. Yahoo!’s share of overall display revenues is expected to increase to 16.4% this year, after three straight years of losing market share. However, the gains will not be enough to avert the rapid growth of Facebook, whose share is expected to top 23.8% in 2012.

“What’s striking is how even as Yahoo!’s US display ad revenues will deliver double-digit gains each year from 2010 through 2012, not only will display revenues at Facebook surpass Yahoo! this year, Google’s revenues will exceed Yahoo! next year,” said David Hallerman, principal analyst at eMarketer. “What that leapfrogging trend confirms is the great and growing demand among brand marketers for online display ad placements.”

Google’s role in the US display market continues to grow stronger. eMarketer estimates the company will bring in $1.28 billion in US online display ad revenues in 2011, up 49.2% from $855 million in display revenues in 2010. This will put Google share of overall US display revenues to 12.6% in 2011, up from 9.6% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2009.

Display revenues at AOL will continue to fall, eMarketer estimates. The company is expected to earn just $443 million in US online display revenues in 2011, down 6.3% from last year. However, growth rates for AOL’s display business are expected to be positive in 2012, after four straight years of decline.

About eMarketer
eMarketer is the authority on digital marketing, media and commerce, offering insights essential to navigating the changing, competitive and complex digital environment. By weighing and analyzing information from different sources, eMarketer provides businesspeople, marketers and advertisers with the most complete view of digital marketing available.
www.eMarketer.com

Media Contact:
Clark Fredricksen
Vice President, Communications, eMarketer
Tel. 212-763-6056
Twitter

Posted on March 1, 2011.    

Google’s Share of US Search Revenues Still Growing

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Despite 47% growth from Bing in 2010

NEW YORK, NY (March 1, 2011)—Despite rapid gains by Microsoft’s Bing, Google’s share of the $13.59 billion US search advertising market will continue to grow in 2011, according to new estimates by eMarketer.

The company’s share of overall US online search revenues increased to 71.4% last year, as Google’s search revenues reached $8.83 billion in the US. In 2011, eMarketer estimates Google’s US search revenues will grow 15.7% to $10.2 billion, putting the company’s share of overall market revenues above 75% for the year.

Search advertising revenues at Microsoft grew 47.4% to $1.26 billion in 2010, eMarketer estimates. This year, growth rates for the company won’t be quite as high, though eMarketer does expect Microsoft’s US search ad revenues to expand by 16.4% to $1.47 billion by the end of the year.

eMarketer estimates Microsoft’s share of the overall search ad market reached 10.2% in 2010, with the company’s share is expected to inch up slightly to 10.8% in 2011.

“The US paid search market is more and more a two-company game,” said David Hallerman, principal analyst at eMarketer. “And yet there’s no real competition. Even though Bing is gaining revenue, Google’s share is still rising as the combined revenues at Microsoft and Yahoo! continue to fall.”

Meanwhile, eMarketer expects Yahoo!’s share of the US search ad market to decline to 8.1% in 2011, with search revenues reaching $1.1 billion—down 14% from $1.28 billion in 2010.

AOL is expected to earn just $252 million in search revenues in 2011, down 11.5% from $285 million in 2010, according to eMarketer. The company’s share of the overall market revenues is expected to drop to 1.5% this year, compared to 2.3% in 2010.

About eMarketer
eMarketer is the authority on digital marketing, media and commerce, offering insights essential to navigating the changing, competitive and complex digital environment. By weighing and analyzing information from different sources, eMarketer provides businesspeople, marketers and advertisers with the most complete view of digital marketing available.
www.eMarketer.com

Media Contact:
Clark Fredricksen
Vice President, Communications, eMarketer
Tel. 212-763-6056
Twitter

Posted on March 1, 2011.