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Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones, tablets, and other internet-connected devices for all formats mentioned; includes contextual text links, paid inclusion, and paid listings; excludes display-oriented formats on social networks, even if triggered by search queries

Additional Note: The “moderate tariffs” scenario assumes that US growth slows, but the downturn is limited due to selective or temporary relief brought by trade negotiations. The “heavy tariffs” scenario assumes that persistent broad US tariffs spark a global recession, leading to inflation, retaliation from other countries, and weakened business and consumer sentiment.

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