The retail divide among top performers and the rest of the market has been amplified by the coronavirus pandemic.
According to our most recent forecast, the top 10 US ecommerce players will collectively grow their share of the overall ecommerce market to 60.1% in 2020. That’s up from 58.2% last year, as consumers shift toward retailers of essential goods and brands they can count on for reliable delivery and fulfillment.
During times of uncertainty, it’s no surprise that many consumers look for tried-and-true offerings, which are often found when shopping at large retailers. Per a March 2020 survey from tech firm Red Points, majorities of US internet users said product quality (62.1%), speed of delivery (56.6%), price (53.6%) and trustworthiness (51.8%) were the factors of digital retail they valued during the pandemic.
Many large retailers possess a notable presence in ecommerce and are better positioned to capitalize on their existing online practices. Over the past few months, consumers have increasingly turned to Amazon and big-box chains such as Walmart, Target and Costco. Each of these companies has had its online sales surge during the pandemic.
We expect the top 10 ecommerce retailers to grow their ecommerce sales at above-average rates, collectively increasing by 21.8% this year and outpacing the growth of the overall market (18.0%).
Amazon will maintain its No. 1 position as it increases its ecommerce market share from 37.0% in 2019 to 38.0% by year-end. Walmart—on the strength of its anticipated growth rate of 44.2%—will surpass eBay for the No. 2 position with 5.8% market share, up from 4.7% last year.
Best Buy, Costco, The Home Depot and Target are also positioned for above-average ecommerce growth, ranging from 36.0% to 52.0%.