The stat: Easter spending is expected to reach a record-breaking $24.9 billion, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

The trend: While consumers are planning to spend more this Easter, that may reflect economic realities rather than an increased desire to celebrate.

Candy is more expensive. While candy is the most popular purchase category for Easter celebrants this year, it is also one of the products with the highest rates of inflation due to skyrocketing cocoa costs. Candy prices, including chocolate, were up 11.6% YoY in February, according to the US Labor Department.

Energy costs are top of mind. Of the 28% of consumers polled by CivicScience who plan to spend more this Easter, 92% are very or somewhat concerned about gas and energy prices, which could indicate that rising costs at the pump are beginning to pressure budgets and sentiment.

Shoppers are looking for value. Over half of those celebrating Easter (55%) plan to shop at discount stores, per the NRF. At the same time, CivicScience’s survey found a 5 percentage point increase in the number of shoppers turning to club membership retailers like Costco, showing that more consumers are looking for ways to stretch their dollars.

Implications for retailers: The NRF’s bullish Easter forecast could mask the cracks emerging in consumer spending, as households increase their budgets out of necessity rather than a heightened desire to shop.

To maintain relevance, retailers need to appeal to consumers’ deal-seeking tendencies. That could mean increasing promotional activity, enhancing loyalty perks, or emphasizing ecommerce capabilities to attract shoppers looking to save on gas.

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