The news: Insurance premiums are set to rise by 15% next year for the people who buy through the Affordable Care Act, per a new Peterson-KFF Health System analysis.

Digging into the details: Tax credits that helped make ACA coverage more affordable will expire at the end of 2025. As a result, out-of-pocket expenses will jump more than 75% on average, KFF estimates.

• Cost increases as steep as KFF is estimating healthier people to drop health insurance and make the ACA risk pool sicker on average.
• The shift will lead to more costs per covered patient and push insurers to raise rates by 4%, KFF estimates.
• Another 3% rate hike is expected from tariff costs, now implemented on medical devices, but expected to be added to Rx drugs in the future.
• Insurers attribute the remaining 8% raise to generally increasing costs of healthcare.

Why it matters: The ACA’s insurance price hikes represent the biggest increase since 2018. Plus, KFF’s estimate excludes the negative effects of the Trump budget, like cuts to Medicaid and hospital revenues.

Yes, and: The Trump administration recently eliminated a Biden-era policy that erased medical debt from consumer credit reports. About 100 million Americans owe more than $220 billion in medical debt, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which can lower credit scores and limit purchasing power.

Our take: While the Trump administration is eliminating the ACA tax credits, states where the president won the election account for 88% of ACA enrollment growth since 2020, per KFF research in April. When premium increases roll out across the ACA marketplace, and spillover into higher costs for hospitals and healthcare services, we expect plenty of political finger-pointing over fault, but little agreement on ways to improve US healthcare and keep consumers out of medical debt.

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