The news: Fourth of July forecasts suggest consumers are still spending during major cultural moments, but macroeconomic pressures are changing how they do so.

Consumers are expected to spend $9.4 billion on Independence Day festivities this year, a 5.4% increase over last year, per the NRF. However, much of that growth is being driven by higher participation tied to the nation’s 250th anniversary, as per-person spending is projected to rise a more modest 2.1% YoY, well below the 4.2% annual inflation rate.

That aligns with a Numerator survey showing that while 71% of consumers plan to celebrate—and 95% of those expect to make a holiday-related purchase—45% say rising prices will have a moderate or significant impact on their plans.

Zooming in: Travel is one area seeing a notable shift in behavior. While elevated gas prices and airfare are expected to keep the number of people traveling by car or plane flat, the number opting for buses, trains, and cruises is projected to rise 5.3% to 4.93 million, surpassing the previous high of 4.79 million, per AAA.

Much of that growth is being driven by rising interest in cruises, which offer more predictable, all-in pricing alongside bundled dining, entertainment, and multi-destination itineraries—making them an attractive option in a more cost-conscious environment.

Implications for retailers and marketers: Consumers are spending carefully, even as they remain willing to pull out their wallets for holidays and other tentpole events like the World Cup. But with consumers having many options for where to spend, grocers, consumer packaged goods brands, quick-service restaurants, and travel-adjacent brands need sharp, value-oriented messages to capture sales. While that can take many forms—from offering holiday-centric bundles and private labels to targeted promotions and loyalty offers—the goal is to help shoppers celebrate without feeling like they’re overspending.

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