In the face of recession warning signs, credit card issuers must be ready to shift their strategies to protect a payments industry cash cow. This means planning for consumer weakness in unexpected places; facing down buy now, pay later (BNPL) threats; and making tough program-specific decisions.

Key Question: What are the short- and long-term challenges for general-purpose credit cards, and what do they mean for issuers?

KEY STAT: We expect US credit card spending to reach nearly $2.837 trillion in 2022, delivering more than $160 billion in revenues to issuers—which a recession would put in jeopardy.