The news: Just 57% of US adults say childhood vaccines are very safe, down 6 percentage points year over year, according to an April survey from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. At the same time, 42% support reducing the number of vaccines on the childhood immunization schedule.

Support for scaling back the schedule is highly partisan: 65% of Republicans back the idea versus 18% of Democrats. Supporters cite concerns that children receive too many vaccines too early (63%) and that vaccination decisions should be left to parents (57%).

Why it matters: Declining confidence in vaccine safety and recommendations increases the risk of disease outbreaks.

More consumers are OK forgoing routine child vaccines. Public backing for MMR vaccine exemptions has doubled over the last ten years. In fact, a recent Pew Research survey shows that 30% of Americans now prioritize parental choice for childhood vaccines, even if it creates health risks.

US childhood vaccination coverage is slipping. Rates dropped across all reported vaccines in the 2024-25 school year, while exemptions rose to 3.6% from 3.3%, per the latest CDC data. Vaccine opt-out rates increased in 36 states and Washington, DC, exceeding 5% in 17 states. MMR coverage dropped to 92.5%, below the threshold of 95% needed to prevent transmission, with state rates ranging from 78.5% in Idaho to 98.2% in Connecticut.

Outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases are rising. Measles cases reached their highest level since 1991 with 2,288 confirmed cases last year, per the CDC. This year, 2,073 cases have already been confirmed, with children up to age 19 accounting for 72% of infections and 93% occurring among people who were unvaccinated or with unknown vaccination status. Whooping cough cases have also surged, topping 28,000 last year versus about 7,000 in 2023, per CDC data.

Implications for vaccine makers: Declining confidence in vaccines reflects an erosion of trust in public health guidance, but it hasn’t collapsed uniformly. Federal health agency leaders are trusted by just 43% of Americans, but the American Academy of Pediatrics (77%) and the American Medical Association (73%) score much higher, according to a March Annenberg study.

That gap shows that pediatricians and local medical providers may be vaccine makers' most effective channels. Vaccine makers need to equip clinicians with clear evidence, practical talking points, and patient-friendly materials that address concerns about children receiving "too many vaccines too soon" while respecting parents' role in vaccination decisions.

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