Executive Summary

The 2022 holiday season is shaping up better than the negative headlines would seem to dictate, as consumer spending remains strong at brick-and-mortar and shows renewed vigor in the ecommerce channel. But elevated supply chain and shipping challenges, inventory markdowns, and marketing costs will strain retailers to deliver profits.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? Our forecast for US holiday season spending for retail, ecommerce, and key shopping days, plus analysis of category and retailer expectations.

KEY STAT: Cyber Monday and Black Friday will approach $12 billion and $10 billion in ecommerce sales, respectively, to rank as the top online spending days of the 2022 holiday season—despite low single-digit growth rates.