The forecast: Holiday sales in the UK this year will grow by 8.1% from last year, with ecommerce sales growth rates stabilizing after spiking in 2020.

Overall holiday sales are forecast to be largely concentrated in November and December, as stores don’t have the inventory for sales earlier in the season.

Dive deeper:

• Supply chain issues will continue to affect consumers into the holiday season, from trucker shortages worsened by Brexit to pandemic worries and a fuel shortage.
• Holiday shopping is likely to be done in more brick-and-mortars than in 2020. The share of Q4 ecommerce sales will drop slightly to 74.8% from 75.0% last year, as shoppers go back into stores.
• Consumers should expect shipping delays for items purchased online.