Over the next two years, the four ecommerce companies with the largest shares of US retail ecommerce sales will hold their spots. But moves by smaller players will shake up the rankings.

• Target will solidify its place in the top five by 2024. The retailer has been on the move since the start of the pandemic. Target was tied at No. 10 in 2019 and will be tied for No. 5 with The Home Depot in 2023 with a 1.9% share. But in 2024, The Home Depot’s share will drop slightly, while Target’s will remain the same.
• Carvana will continue to move up the ranks. Despite a brutal 2022 and rumors of bankruptcy, Carvana will remain tied with Best Buy at No. 8 in 2023. We expect Carvana’s sales to continue to grow and its share to surpass Best Buy and Costco in 2024 to reach the No. 7 slot.
• Lowe’s will maintain its share as Wayfair falters. The home improvement retailer will solidify its position in the No. 12 slot in 2024, while struggling furniture retailer Wayfair loses share and falls to No. 13.
• Already-dominant Amazon will gain most market share. The ecommerce giant will increase its market share by 0.4 percentage points to 38.0% next year, the largest increase of any company. But this is a rebound for Amazon, which held the same share back in 2020 and has been unable to grow beyond that.