Just over two-thirds of the population will be digital audio listeners this year, including nearly 75% of internet users. With an audience of 228.6 million, digital audio has become one of the most popular media options in the country. That figure nearly matches the total for traditional TV viewers (232.2 million) and exceeds the total for subscription OTT (sub OTT) viewers (226.4 million).

Digital audio is so mainstream that listener growth will inevitably be slow going forward. Any media that achieves widespread penetration will eventually hit a user growth wall, as digital audio did in 2021. Nearly everyone who might be inclined to listen to audio digitally is already doing so. The listener growth that does occur mainly traces to population growth and the small number of people coming online for the first time in any given year.

Spotify has a huge lead among the existing listener base. Spotify will lead its closest competitor (Amazon) by more than 50 million listeners this year, and its lead is likely safe for a very long time, as user behavior has settled in. In a low-growth environment for first-time listeners—and in an industry where users tend to subscribe to only one service—the competition for ears has become something of a zero-sum game. This will make it challenging for any of Spotify’s competitors to grow quickly enough to approach the industry leader.

iHeartRadio will lead in listener growth this year (4.5%), but the boost will be modest. None of the five major digital audio services we break out will post impressive listener growth this year or next year. iHeartRadio’s audience will grow by 2.1 million in 2024, while Spotify will gain 2.8 million despite coming second in growth (2.8%). Amazon and Apple will not move the needle very much, and Pandora will lose listeners (3.3% decline) for the eighth year in a row.

Read the full report, US Digital Audio Forecast Overview 2024.