In a difficult year for retail sales overall, the US retail industry will remain the largest spender on digital advertising among all verticals, despite a huge deceleration in growth.

Already No. 1 in ecommerce, China will overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest overall retail market for the first time.

The pandemic has accelerated ecommerce growth in the US this year, with online sales reaching a level not previously expected until 2022. In our Q3 US retail forecast, the top 10 retailers by ecommerce sales will tighten their grip on the retail market.

Amid 2020’s grim retail environment, ecommerce stands out as a bright spot. By now, the story is well known: US buyers have turned to online retailers like Amazon and Walmart in record numbers, mostly to avoid shopping in crowded places or because their local stores were closed.

The unprecedented social and economic disruptions that affected all areas of life in the US in 2020 also skewed many of our pre-pandemic forecasts. Valuable insights can be gleaned by examining the difference between what we thought would happen as of February 2020 versus what we now project for this year and the coming years.

The 2020 US holiday season, set amid the backdrop of a pandemic-driven consumer economy, will see an unprecedented shift to ecommerce.

The pandemic has shifted the grocery landscape this year, accelerating digital groceries faster than we previously anticipated. Kroger—who’s digital investments over the years have helped the company navigate amid the pandemic—will see its ecommerce sales surpass $11 billion this year, growing over 79% in 2020.

Search ad spending in the US will rise by 5.9% this year, significantly below trend, in the face of the massive disruption to consumer lifestyles. But the pandemic is setting search up for a bigger future.

The COVID-19 outbreak undermined many of our pre-pandemic US forecasts. Insight can now be gleaned by examining the difference between what we thought would happen as of February 2020 vs. what our forecasts now show.

One of the major themes to emerge from the pandemic has been the growing divide between the haves and have-nots. Some trends that have deepened the divide—such as the shift to ecommerce—are hardly new. But others will be short-lived trends that none of us could have predicted at the beginning of 2020. It remains to be seen when things will return to normal, but one thing is for certain: New habits formed in 2020 have altered the future of retail.

Amazon’s net US digital ad revenues will rise by 41.0% this year as consumers shift dramatically to more ecommerce shopping and advertisers pay to get in front of shoppers at their leading destination.