The 2020 holiday season’s unprecedented ecommerce surge helped total US retail spending remain positive, setting the tone for healthy outlook for 2021 holiday season growth.

The 2020 US holiday season posted better-than-expected retail sales growth, as huge ecommerce gains added to a surprisingly positive performance for brick-and-mortar retail. The early outlook for the 2021 holiday season is solid despite major economic uncertainty ahead.

In a difficult year for retail sales overall, the US retail industry will remain the largest spender on digital advertising among all verticals, despite a huge deceleration in growth.

Already No. 1 in ecommerce, China will overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest overall retail market for the first time.

There’s no doubt that grocery shopping habits have changed over the past year, with more consumers trying online options for the first time. This year, US online grocery sales will surpass $100 billion, to make up 12.4% of the country’s ecommerce sales.

Online grocery took off dramatically in 2020 as a result of the pandemic; that’s no surprise to anyone. According to our estimates, food and beverage was by far the fastest-growing ecommerce category in the US in 2020. Given its low penetration and high sales growth, digital grocery is the next big opportunity in ecommerce.

The pandemic has accelerated ecommerce growth in the US this year, with online sales reaching a level not previously expected until 2022. In our Q3 US retail forecast, the top 10 retailers by ecommerce sales will tighten their grip on the retail market.