TV squeaks past online and mobile video to become the top video ad channel among US agency and marketing professionals. In October, 47% ranked TV—including connected TV (CTV) and OTT—as the No. 1 video type for achieving their advertising goals. That’s more than the 46% who put online and mobile video in first place.

Following a banner year, US ad spending in 2022 will be shaped by three key trends: Linear TV crossing the Rubicon, a billionaires’ club emerging in connected TV (CTV), and ecommerce ad spending enriching Google, Amazon, and a crop of newcomers in search and retail media.

US linear TV ad spending will hit $68.35 billion this year and fall to $64.94 billion in 2026. Despite that decline, ad spending on linear and connected TV (CTV) combined will increase from $87.24 billion this year to more than $100 billion in 2026 due to the surge in CTV viewing.

Total time spent with media per day in the US will decline slightly in 2022, but most pandemic-era gains will be retained. Digital video, subscription OTT services, and smartphones will be among the bigger winners this year.

US advertisers are dedicating more of their display budgets to digital video as social video and CTV advertising climb to new heights.

US adults are spending more time watching YouTube on connected TVs and less time watching it on mobile devices. This year, for the first time since we began our forecast, less than half of time spent with YouTube will be on mobile, as viewers pivot to watching these videos on the same screen as their TV programming, separate from their TikToks and Instagram Reels.

Come 2024, the number of cord-cutters and cord-nevers, at 138.1 million, will surpass the pay TV viewership, at 129.3 million, in the US. The gap will continue to widen as more people say goodbye to traditional cable, satellite, or telecom live TV services.

US consumers will form new patterns of device use as pandemic norms become habits that are here to stay. This includes usage of mobile and other devices returning to pre-pandemic growth levels. Our forecast for time spent with mobile, connected TV, and other devices show businesses where they should invest.

This year, 57% of US video ad spending will go to linear TV, a decline from 62% in 2021 and 71% in 2020. By comparison, ad spend share is increasing for connected TV (CTV) and other digital formats such as social video.