At Insider Intelligence, our forecasting team is constantly analyzing historical data, combing through insights from thousands of data sources, and reacting to industry forces to predict where markets and segments are heading. Peter Newman, senior forecasting analyst, worked on our latest forecast for US digital ad spending in Q1. He tells us how the recent market turmoil, supply chain issues, and economic uncertainty could impact the numbers in our forecast.

In 2022, 40.7% of China’s digital ad spending will go toward the ecommerce channel, for ads offered by retailers like Alibaba and JD.com. This eclipses the share in the US, where 14.5% of digital ad spending will flow to ecommerce channel ads sold by the likes of Amazon, Walmart, and eBay.

Buoyed by a surge in US digital advertising, spending by the media and entertainment industries has exceeded pre-pandemic expectations and is poised for continued growth.

With US digital ad spend projected to increase nearly 15% this year, brand partnerships can be a valuable component of the marketing mix. Transformational partnerships, in particular, power growth opportunities with many distinctive benefits.

After an inconsistent year for digital ad spending in 2020, every industry in the US will increase their outlays in 2021. The retail, consumer packaged goods (CPG), and entertainment industries will provide the biggest boosts, driving up overall digital ad spending by 25.5%.

By 2024, we expect US digital ad spend to be about $65 billion higher than what we expected before the pandemic. The biggest drivers behind these larger-than-expected increases are retail media networks and connected TV.