TV ad spending takes a hit as marketers adjust their budgets amid a recession.

Traditionally, advertisers make big spending commitments to get the best deal on TV inventory. eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence Nicole Perrin speaks with fellow principal analyst Andrew Lipsman, senior analyst Ross Benes, and forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom about why Procter & Gamble's chief brand officer Marc Pritchard thinks marketers don't benefit from this arrangement as much as those on the sell side do. They also talk about what's going on at Quibi, Apple TV+, and The Walt Disney Co.

eMarketer principal analyst Mark Dolliver, junior analyst Blake Droesch and vice president of content studio at Insider Intelligence Paul Verna discuss how negative emotions are received in ads, whether we're witnessing the beginning of the end of the Upfronts, if paying with your hands is a good idea, the significance of LinkedIn Stories, if parents are actually influencers, what the Boston Celtics and Twitter have in common, and more.

eMarketer analyst Ross Benes and senior analyst at Insider Intelligence Audrey Schomer discuss how the coronavirus has influenced sports' gradual move to digital. They then talk about starting meaningful conversations online, who still has pay TV and whether we will see the Upfronts and the NewFronts unite?

US upfront TV ad spending will decline 1.4% in the 2019-2020 season to $20.28 billion, and drop a substantial 27.1% in the 2020-2021 season to $14.78 billion, a $5.5 billion difference year-on-year.

eMarketer principal analyst Mark Dolliver, junior analyst Blake Droesch and vice president of content studio at Insider Intelligence Paul Verna discuss whether its time to say goodbye to the sharing economy, what it will take to make people feel safe in stores, brands protest response, changing the Upfronts, young people watching more TV, taking mobile gaming more seriously, how looking at a photo can relieve pain and more.

With the coronavirus pandemic leading to a significant economic slowdown, we’re providing updated guidance to our clients about what we expect for ad spending during H1 2020. We finalized our most recent complete forecast on March 6, 2020, before the cascade of drastic social distancing and market declines began in the US. Since then, we have provided guidance through a series of "Analyst Take" notes on US ad spending. Guidance for US search, out-of-home, display, digital video and TV are now available. We also issued ad spending guidance in Canada, China, France, Germany and the UK. We will update our full-year forecast for ad spending again in June.

“For long-term planning, and for reserving inventory in the upfront marketplace, a stable, broad-based, ‘blunt instrument’ like Nielsen age-and-gender targets will continue to play an important role,” said Beth Rockwood, senior vice president of ad sales research at WarnerMedia.

In April 2020, researchers at investment bank BMO Capital Markets estimated that for the 2020-21 TV season, inventory sold upfront would account for 40% to 60% of total US TV network ad inventory. Normally, upfront spending accounts for 70% to 80% of this inventory. Q3 will give us a clearer picture of how upfront spending will unfold this season.

Last year’s upfronts saw the national TV networks command a 15% CPM boost vs. the prior year. This year’s upfront, which cover a window of time that includes September 2020 through August 2021, will be permeated by the dampening effects of COVID-19 on advertising spend.

Researchers at investment bank BMO Capital Markets also expected a less active upfront this year. For the 2020-21 TV season, BMO predicted that inventory sold upfront would account for 40% to 60% of total US TV ad inventory. Normally, upfront spending accounts for 70% to 80% of total TV inventory.

"Some advertisers who bought ads in the upfronts are shifting money within the same media company to streaming services," Haggstrom said.

US advertisers are committing more dollars upfront for linear TV and digital video, however the percentage of digital video ads being sold programmatically continues to increase.

eMarketer principal analyst Mark Dolliver, junior analyst Blake Droesch and vice president of content studio Paul Verna discuss NBCUniversal's half-launched video streaming service Peacock, whether privacy will disappear during the coronavirus, Quibi's plans for TV, AMC's digital upfronts platform, YouTube showing creators which hours their audiences are online, how smart a dog is and more.

CTV advertising also became a bigger part of upfront negotiations. Streaming inventory accounted for 25% to 30% of advertisers’ upfront budgets this year, according to ad buyers who spoke with Digiday. Last year, streaming accounted for about 20%. While digital upfront spending was up, TV upfront spending declined significantly.

This report gives an update on the major TV networks’ advanced targeting offerings ahead of the 2019-2020 TV upfront sales season.

Large chunks of spending come from upfront or other long-term commitments as part of programmatic guaranteed deals. Those deals don’t provide the flexibility advertisers may be used to in other programmatic display channels.

According to eMarketer’s Q3 2020 Digital Video Trends report, CTV advertising in the US has increased 25% in 2020, with ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) revenue up 31% and digital upfront TV ad spend up 11%, despite the downturn in traditional TV advertising.

I'm seeing more and more dollars being controlled by the linear teams, especially because CTV is becoming a bigger part of the upfront negotiation process.”. This year, the confusion surrounding the upfronts increased scatter market demand for CTV inventory, according to Simulmedia’s Morgan.