With a hard Brexit looming, 2020 will be the peak of cross-border ecommerce penetration in the UK, according to the latest forecast from eMarketer, an Insider Intelligence company. This year, 22.8 million people in the UK will have made a cross-border ecommerce purchase, representing 46.0% of internet users and 50.2% of digital buyers.

When the UK government announced a nationwide lockdown for November, the impetus for retail holiday ecommerce shopping was ratcheted up another notch, given that Black Friday shopping falls within this period.

Digital retail will have a huge impact on UK shopper trends in the coming holiday season. This year, ecommerce will account for nearly a third of all holiday spending, its largest share to date. Brick-and- mortar shopping, meanwhile, remains on the precipice.

The UK is something of a global leader when it comes to retail ecommerce. As a proportion of total retail sales, only China will trump the UK in ecommerce sales penetration this year (41.2% versus 30.9%, respectively). The UK’s fulfillment and delivery infrastructure is, as one would expect, quite mature.

From midnight on March 23, the UK government enforced the closure of nonessential retail stores in the UK as part of strict lockdown measures. This shuttering was only lifted on June 15. During those intervening 12 weeks, UK consumers wanting to purchase anything other than groceries or medications could not do so in-store.

This will be a tough year for holiday season retail in the UK. Shoppers will spend less in 2020, and much of their spend will fall outside the traditional November–December time frame, leading to the lowest holiday retail sales total since 2015.

Retail ecommerce sales in Western Europe rose by 26.3% in 2020, to €481.54 billion ($539.18 billion). The pandemic is fueling other shifts in the retail landscape, too, such as a greater focus on buying local.

Reviews have always been a key aspect of a consumer’s shopping journey. But nowadays—particularly as more consumers lean on ecommerce—additional information in the form of user-generated visuals is becoming just as critical.

And according to SimilarWeb, discretionary spending boosted many D2C firms in the UK during the country’s first lockdown, especially those in the hobbies and lifestyle category. Data from The Direct Selling Association UK in late 2020 found that its member companies had seen average sales growth of 45.5% through the direct channel for the year to date.

Ecommerce Is (Still) the Next Frontier. Even as sensitivities around the coronavirus pandemic have heightened the importance of brand- and relationship-building, the related economic downturn has deepened the demand for sales-oriented influencer marketing as well.

Physical retail has suffered hugely under the weight of the coronavirus. Ecommerce has benefited to the tune of a 14.7% rise in sales this year, and digital habits are forming that will last beyond the pandemic.

Global retail ecommerce sales will decelerate to a 16.5% growth rate in 2020. Even as consumers transitioned en masse to ecommerce during the pandemic, the drag caused by multiple recessions internationally has reduced the overall outlook.

The retail industry will continue to lead the pack in terms of digital ad spend in 2020, and the lockdown has helped retail solidify its position. This year, UK digital ad spending in the retail sector will reach £3.02 billion ($3.85 billion).

Retail sales in the UK are slowing as Brexit concerns bite. However, ecommerce growth remains robust, underpinned by smartphone shopping and buying. The future of retail, however, is omnichannel.