Holiday sales in the UK this year will grow by 8.1% from last year, with ecommerce sales growth rates stabilizing after spiking in 2020.

When it comes to Christmas shopping, the biggest priority among UK consumers is avoiding crowds, cited by 32% of those 18 and older.

This will be a tough year for holiday season retail in the UK. Shoppers will spend less in 2020, and much of their spend will fall outside the traditional November–December time frame, leading to the lowest holiday retail sales total since 2015.

The 2019 holiday season capped a tough year for physical retailers in the UK, with brick-and-mortar sales down for the second year running. However, strong gains in retail ecommerce sales meant that overall, retail sales saw growth during the season.

Insider Intelligence spoke with Martha Welsh, who leads strategy, operations and go-to-market initiatives for Google Commerce, which includes Google Shopping, Travel, Payments, and Next Billion Users.

Next year in the UK, digital video ads will make gains, Brexit will continue to complicate ecommerce and data privacy rules, and retailers will reimagine the in-store experience.

Digital retail will have a huge impact on UK shopper trends in the coming holiday season. This year, ecommerce will account for nearly a third of all holiday spending, its largest share to date. Brick-and- mortar shopping, meanwhile, remains on the precipice.

The UK is something of a global leader when it comes to retail ecommerce. As a proportion of total retail sales, only China will trump the UK in ecommerce sales penetration this year (41.2% versus 30.9%, respectively). The UK’s fulfillment and delivery infrastructure is, as one would expect, quite mature.

Strong growth in online sales over the 2019 holiday season propelled the UK retail sector past a milestone. Ecommerce represented 28.2% of all holiday retail sales, surpassing the 25% mark for the first time. Total retail sales for the season amounted to £99.26 billion ($132.33 billion).