This will be a tough year for holiday season retail in the UK. Shoppers will spend less in 2020, and much of their spend will fall outside the traditional November–December time frame, leading to the lowest holiday retail sales total since 2015.

The shift to digital was destined to play out during the 2020 holiday shopping season, too, according to data from VoucherCodes and the Centre for Retail Research. Their survey of seven Western European markets pointed to plunging in-store sales when compared with the 2019 holiday season; by contrast, they forecast digital sales would leap 51.2%, to £98.18 billion ($125.31 billion).

The 2019 holiday season capped a tough year for physical retailers in the UK, with brick-and-mortar sales down for the second year running. However, strong gains in retail ecommerce sales meant that overall, retail sales saw growth during the season.

When the UK government announced a nationwide lockdown for November, the impetus for retail holiday ecommerce shopping was ratcheted up another notch, given that Black Friday shopping falls within this period.

Digital retail will have a huge impact on UK shopper trends in the coming holiday season. This year, ecommerce will account for nearly a third of all holiday spending, its largest share to date. Brick-and- mortar shopping, meanwhile, remains on the precipice.

The UK is something of a global leader when it comes to retail ecommerce. As a proportion of total retail sales, only China will trump the UK in ecommerce sales penetration this year (41.2% versus 30.9%, respectively). The UK’s fulfillment and delivery infrastructure is, as one would expect, quite mature.

Strong growth in online sales over the 2019 holiday season propelled the UK retail sector past a milestone. Ecommerce represented 28.2% of all holiday retail sales, surpassing the 25% mark for the first time. Total retail sales for the season amounted to £99.26 billion ($132.33 billion).

Growth in total ad spending in the UK continues to slow, weighed down by the uncertainty of Brexit dragging into the 2019 holiday season and unfavorable comparisons to 2018 total ad spend, which got a bump because of the World Cup.

As expected, Brexit has had an impact on companies selling via direct channels from Europe into the UK and on UK companies selling into the EU. In many ways, this has been just as disruptive as the pandemic.

The UK comes in third at $153.61 billion (£120.35 billion), a total that is almost five times less than the US. Overall, the global ecommerce picture is extremely top-heavy, as the top 10 countries make up 87.9% of worldwide ecommerce sales.