We estimate that Alibaba retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.0% to $1.209 trillion in 2021 (January to December) and account for 47.1% of total retail ecommerce sales in China, down from 48.1% in 2020. We estimate that retail ecommerce sales in China will climb 18.5% to reach $2.564 trillion in 2021 for a 52.1% of the global total.

We estimate that Alibaba retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.0% to $1.209 trillion in 2021 (January to December) and account for 47.1% of total retail ecommerce sales in China, down from 48.1% in 2020. We estimate that retail ecommerce sales in China will climb 18.5% to reach $2.564 trillion in 2021 for a 52.1% of the global total.

China continues to lead the world in all things ecommerce, including innovation. Social commerce livestreaming is just one of many new stories for 2021 and beyond.

In the beauty sector, for example, cross-border sales accounted for 16% of total retail ecommerce sales of skincare and makeup in China in 2020, equivalent to $1.7 billion, according to The NPD Group. As that growth continues, we predict that more than 313 million internet users in China will make cross-border purchases in 2021.

Social commerce is rising rapidly worldwide. But to what extent can the US market mirror that of China, the world leader in social commerce?

It’s hard to imagine US mcommerce approaching 40% penetration of retail sales anytime soon, but China still holds lessons for the US. Some trends in China eventually found their way to the US, including:. Mobile payments. Social commerce. QR codes. Which trends in China are happening now and have a decent chance of similar uptake in US mcommerce? Livestreaming shopping channels.

China led cross-border ecommerce buyer growth with a 24.5% increase in 2020, and Shopify’s partnerships with Chinese tech giants like Alipay, and with ByteDance’s TikTok, will help its merchants more easily penetrate the market. The marketing stack opportunity: Shopify’s investment in Yotpo adds yet another layer of automation for merchants and may hint at a future acquisition in the marketing space.

Singles’ Day, the online shopping festival invented by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba and held on November 11, is widely known in the West. Now, a series of similar “double-digit” shopping festivals from digital powerhouses Lazada and Shopee are driving ecommerce growth in Southeast Asia.

When it comes to ecommerce, China is ahead of the pack, whether it is sales, marketing tactics, or logistics.

Since Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day in 2009, the event has grown into a shopping extravaganza that lasts for weeks and stretches across various platforms.

Livestream shopping took off in China four to five years ago, but has developed into a $300 billion industry this year, accounting for 11.7% of all retail ecommerce sales in the country. To put that in perspective, that figure makes the livestream shopping market in China larger than every other entire retail ecommerce market in the world, except for China and the US.

Following a major shift to online retail in 2020, retail ecommerce sales will continue to grow by double digits through 2023 and make up an increasing share of total retail sales worldwide.

(US retail ecommerce sales will hit $933.30 billion this year, according to our forecast. And Amazon’s US retail ecommerce sales are projected to reach $386.40 billion this year—accounting for 41.4% of all US retail ecommerce sales.). This has given its buy button wide reach: In 2016, Amazon reported that 33 million people in 170 countries used Amazon Pay to make a purchase.