Upfront spending is flowing toward streaming services. Upfront CTV ad spending will grow by 34.6% to $6.41 billion this year. For context, that’s about how much we had predicted in our inaugural forecast would be spent on total CTV advertising in 2019.
US TV ad spending will decline from next year through 2026 except for a slight uptick in 2024. At the same time, connected TV ad spending will grow at double-digit annual rates, more than offsetting the losses on the traditional side.
On a gross basis, YouTube will account for about half of our 2021 US CTV programmatic ad spending estimate. While some streaming services prefer to sell their inventory through traditional sales methods like TV networks do, and rely on upfront deals, advertisers are bullish about programmatic’s future role in CTV.
Video formats have outpaced nonvideo formats in programmatic ad spending growth since we started measuring the programmatic display market in 2013. In 2022 and 2023, video will grow at almost twice the rate of nonvideo. 2022 marks the first year that video will surpass nonvideo formats in programmatic ad spending. CTV is the primary driver behind that shift.