We expect relatively strong performance on Prime Day despite a slow start to the year for Amazon and other etailers.

Amazon Prime Day 2022 comes as ecommerce is buffeted by rising ad and supply chain costs and softening growth. This report provides a Prime Day sales forecast for the US, and a breakdown of strategies brands should use during the midsummer event.

Retailers look to promotional shopping events like Prime Day to juice sales: Amazon, Alibaba, Walmart, and others hope the prospect of a good deal will lure customers in.

Amazon Prime Day sales and back-to-school shopping should help increase sales within the quarter. The holiday season will ramp up shortly after, so consumers who have been holding off on purchasing bigger-ticket items will likely take advantage of deals in Q4. We expect growth to accelerate to 12.1% in 2023 as the economy recovers.

Prime Day will once again prove to be a major retail event this year, not just for Amazon but for its competitors as well.

Adobe Analytics estimates that total US ecommerce sales on Prime Day surpassed $11 billion, and Amazon said that its global customers bought more than 250 million items during the coveted two-day shopping event.

It’s Prime Day in June. Amazon traditionally held Prime Day in mid-July but pushed the event to October last year because of the coronavirus pandemic. (The exception was India, where it took place in August 2020.) This year, Amazon will hold Prime Day on June 21–22.

It’s been six years since Amazon’s inaugural Prime Day, and since then, the sales bonanza has evolved from the unofficial kickoff of back-to-school shopping into an event other major retailers try to emulate—so much so that the ecommerce giant has tried to obfuscate when the annual sales day will occur.

Shortly after Amazon confirmed Prime Day for June 21 and 22, both retailers introduced coinciding sales events as competition continues heating up in the retail space.

In our first ever forecast for Prime Day, we expect that Amazon will generate $9.91 billion in worldwide sales, including $6.17 billion in the US.

As Amazon raked in more than $11 billion in Prime Day sales worldwide, health and beauty product sales boomed on the platform. In a survey conducted by Numerator throughout the event, 28.0% of US Prime Day buyers said they made a purchase in that category. Consumer electronics also made a spark: 27.5% of respondents reported buying tech gear and gadgets.

Strategies like multiple Prime Days enable Amazon to capture a larger chunk of online spending—but the more successful these events are, the more concessions the company can squeeze out of brands and sellers reliant on its platform.

Prime Day sales will surpass $10 billion

Brands should anticipate a second Prime Day in October this year—and going forward. The easiest way to drive incremental sales is to double-up on a massive promotional event that always gets Prime members to open their wallets. A second Prime Day in October will boost Amazon’s Q3 and Q4 top line and drive ad spending that drops to the bottom line.