Disney's Q3 earnings: Expect slowing subscriber growth alongside healthy ad sales—but don't get too excited about US TV ad sales as a whole.

eMarketer senior forecasting analyst Cindy Liu shares our recent ad spend estimates for Hulu and the factors behind our recent forecast revision.

Now that Disney has bundled ESPN+ into Hulu, it’s likely that ESPN+ NFL games will be available to Hulu subscribers, albeit at an extra cost. Disney has also contracted with NFL Media to bring NFL Network and NFL Redzone to Hulu + Live TV subscribers starting in August 2021. CBS will make Sunday afternoon NFL games available on its streaming platform Paramount+.

Don’t forget that ESPN+ is now bundled with Hulu, so bundle subscribers will likely be able to access that content through Hulu. NBCUniversal will simulcast all Sunday night football games on Peacock, which will also have exclusive feeds for select NFL games, but it’s not yet clear if those will include Super Bowl games.

In 2021, the biggest US beneficiary of the streaming bonanza will be Disney. After a plethora of streaming competitors launched in 2020, Netflix still added a substantial number of subscribers. Equally as impressive as Netflix’s sustained dominance was Disney+’s ability to quickly gain viewers. These developments show there’s room for multiple services to thrive in this fast-growing market.

This year, three-fourths of US vMVPD subscription revenues will go to Hulu + Live TV and YouTube TV. These two services have stood out for their ability to amass subscribers. Dish Network-owned Sling TV will have the third-highest share in 2021, earning 12.9% of all vMVPD subscription revenues.

Ad dollars and viewers are pouring into digital video platforms as the TV industry continues to lose subscribers.

A little over a year since its debut in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands, Disney+ is now officially available to consumers in Latin America. Subscribers to the platform will be able to enjoy unlimited access to the company’s vast array of content from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, Fox, and more.

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In Q4 2019 and Q1 2020, Sling TV, one of the leaders in this space, reported a decline in subscribers. YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, and Sling TV are the most common vMVPDs, with 6.5 million, 8.9 million, and 5.8 million monthly viewers this year, respectively. Each of these services will add viewers through our forecast period.