On today's episode, we discuss what "going back to the office" may actually mean, the dawn of “tiered-access journalism,” video safe havens for brands, possible surges in travel plans, Facebook's new video speed dating app called Sparked, why the Rubik's Cube was invented, and more. Tune in to listen to the discussion with eMarketer principal analysts Jillian Ryan and Jeremy Goldman, and analyst at Insider Intelligence Blake Droesch.

Facebook continues its pivot to video

Within digital media channels, probably the longest-standing gap in measurement information lies with the walled gardens—a group that includes Google, Facebook, a host of other walled social platforms, and Amazon. Some in the industry are also talking more of walled gardens—or attempts to build them—in the connected TV (CTV) or over-the-top (OTT) space.

The duopoly of Facebook and Google still dominates digital ad revenues worldwide, but a collective rival from the ecommerce industry is showing momentum.

Digital advertising confounded the conditions of the past year or so and will attract more than three-quarters of total media ad spending in 2021—£19.23 billion ($24.66 billion). Video has been the biggest driver of digital spend during this time.

The return of live sports produced a flurry of licensing activity from broadcast networks and streaming services—including digital video, social, and ecommerce platforms. It also reignited concerns about the sustainability of pricing models for sports video and TV.

As a result, last year, adult TikTok users spent more time on TikTok than Facebook users did on Facebook. Even though engagement will slip slightly on both platforms, TikTok will continue to exceed Facebook engagement among users through the rest of our forecast. By 2023, adult TikTok users will spend 35 minutes on the social network, versus Facebook at 32 minutes among adult users.

Publishers also said they are optimizing their commerce content for different social platforms and experimenting more with different social features and formats, including video. They named Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter as platforms they are emphasizing.

Smartphones added 6.5 minutes of video viewing, reaching 35.1 minutes per US adult in 2020. The growth rate for smartphone video will slow in 2021 but remain strong at 6.7%, pushing average minutes to 37.4 minutes. By 2023, this figure will be 41.4 minutes.

There is no global triopoly, but ecommerce is collectively challenging Google and Facebook. Google will claim 28.6% of the worldwide digital ad market this year, and Facebook will take 23.7%. The ecommerce heavyweights combined (Alibaba, Amazon, and JD.com) will take 15.9%. Read Next.

Note: Our display estimates include both rich media and video. Logan’s display estimates include full-screen banner, native ads, overlay, postitial, standard ads, and sticker ads; its video figures encompass discovery, pre-roll, sticky theatre, vertical video, video expandable, video interstitial, and video menu.

Digital video time spent: Includes all video content viewed on desktop/laptop computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs, such as video streamed through over-the-top services. Excludes video streamed through social networks.

Facebook witnessed a 2.3-hour rise, but TikTok engagement was up by a massive 7.2 hours. The same study illustrated a similar trend in Germany among Android app use, albeit most of the gains were more marginal—the amount of time that people spent with Facebook, for example, inched up by half an hour. TikTok, however, saw an even larger jump than in France, of 10 hours.

The snackable video content on TikTok and Instagram was always likely to appeal to new, younger users and take away from Facebook. Indeed, our forecast for Facebook users by age indicates that any new users will come from individuals ages 25 and older, and the platform will leak users from the 24-and-younger cohort. Attitudes toward the value of Facebook in the UK have diminished in recent years.

Instagram still far exceeds TikTok and Snapchat in terms of total users.The Facebook-owned platform will have 118.9 million users this year, up 3.7% over 2020. We have also raised our Instagram projections, following the introduction of InstagramReels.

Why it matters: We forecast that US social network video ad spending in 2021 will grow by nearly a third (31.0%) YoY to $19.22 billion, and though nonparticipant Facebook leads the pack in terms of revenues, both Snap and Twitter are growing at a faster rate—49.8% and 32.1%, respectively. (We don't break out TikTok, but "other" social venues will grow even faster, at 57.3% YoY.).

On today's episode, we discuss how the "Big Three" are driving the digital rebound, what we can expect from TV, and a step change for radio advertising. We then talk about the importance of YouTube recommending products shown in videos, consumer awareness of the sunsetting on third-party cookies, and how much Apple's privacy changes could affect Facebook's ad revenues. Tune in to the discussion with eMarketer senior forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence Eric Haggstrom.

In February, TikTok said it was adding a warning label to videos with content that could not be confirmed as accurate. Viewers who attempt to share an unverified video will also be served a prompt to confirm that they want to share the video. Still, these new measures only address brand safety as it relates to content on the platforms, not to the platforms themselves.