US TV ad spending will decline from next year through 2026 except for a slight uptick in 2024. At the same time, connected TV ad spending will grow at double-digit annual rates, more than offsetting the losses on the traditional side.
Come 2024, the number of cord-cutters and cord-nevers, at 138.1 million, will surpass the pay TV viewership, at 129.3 million, in the US. The gap will continue to widen as more people say goodbye to traditional cable, satellite, or telecom live TV services.
While traditional TV ad spending will struggle for growth in the coming years, digital video will not. A portion of digital video spend will go to the nascent CTV space, but traditional broadcasters are also developing their own streaming services (with BVOD ad spend rising at a far faster rate than traditional TV spend). Overall, the advertising opportunity for CTV remains small.