With struggles to make inroads into coveted markets like India and the aforementioned password drama, an ad-supported Netflix tier is not a question of if, but when.

Nearly every country in the world will see slower growth in total ad spending and digital ad spending than it did last year, but the comparison is an unfair one because 2021 was abnormal. The outlook is mostly bright.

The rest of Facebook’s 10 fastest-growing markets are also developing countries: India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines and South Africa. Developed countries in Europe will experience slower growth. In terms of net monthly users, India will remain Facebook’s largest market in 2020. We expect it will have 262.1 million users this year.

When we finalized our forecast in March, we predicted that India would see the strongest recovery, up 31.7%. But since then, India experienced a second wave of COVID-19 infections that left it the next worst-hit country after the US (as far as number of cases), which will very likely dim that economic recovery.

As for digital ad spending, the US will come in second with 7.5% growth, up from our previous forecast of 19th place with 1.7% growth. The top 10 digital ad markets by size have not changed much from our June 2020 forecast, however, with the US leading the pack at $232.30 billion, followed by China at $105.12 billion. Who Will Be Hit the Hardest?

Since 2017, China and India have been the two fastest-growing ad markets, but India will tumble considerably in 2020 given its very challenging pandemic conditions. Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and India will be the worst-performing countries this year, each posting double-digit declines in total ad spend.

Despite a downgrade to our forecast, digital ad spending in China will still grow 5.0% this year. But there will be a power swap among the major platforms, as Tencent displaces Baidu and becomes the No. 2 publisher. And Alibaba will remain No. 1, but with lowered expectations.

Last year, China was the only market to see overall ad spending growth, although digital ad spending performed well almost everywhere. This year, every country will see growth in almost every category.