This year, China will take a step in its digital transformation that once may have seemed almost unthinkable. We forecast that 52.1% of the country’s retail sales will come from ecommerce in 2021, up from 44.8% a year prior. That means that for the first time anywhere, a majority of retail sales for an entire country will transact online.

Already No. 1 in ecommerce, China will overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest overall retail market for the first time.

The UK is something of a global leader when it comes to retail ecommerce. As a proportion of total retail sales, only China will trump the UK in ecommerce sales penetration this year (41.2% versus 30.9%, respectively). The UK’s fulfillment and delivery infrastructure is, as one would expect, quite mature.

China is the largest digital market in the world, leading all countries in terms of ecommerce, mcommerce and social commerce. It’s also home to many of the largest ecommerce conglomerates, including Alibaba and JD.com, who are generating sales at a scale that far exceeds that of companies in the US—including Amazon.

Social commerce is a fast-growing segment of the US ecommerce market that’s garnering more attention and investment from media companies and brands.

Among holiday shopping events in China, many outside the country have probably only heard of Singles’ Day. However, 618—which ecommerce giant JD.com launched to commemorate the company’s founding day—is gaining popularity. And given the global interest in a post-pandemic retail rebound, this year’s event was particularly worthy of attention.

2020 was a tumultuous year to say the least, but as the adage goes, in crisis there is opportunity. This idea is literally embedded in the Chinese word for “crisis” (危机): Its second character means opportunity. China’s populace appeared to have embodied that spirit. In a challenging year, entrepreneurs and regulators alike worked together to steady the ship and found ways to restore some normalcy through resilience, digital innovations, and timely policies.

Social commerce accelerated in the US in 2020 amid the pandemic-driven ecommerce boom as key platforms advanced their shopping and checkout capabilities.

Nich Weinheimer, general manager of ecommerce at Kenshoo, calls Instacart a “unicorn” opportunity for CPG brands, explaining that while grocery has huge demand overall, it has been supply-constrained in the ecommerce environment. “The world’s largest brands want that grocery inventory, and COVID-19 has accelerated [that ecommerce demand] to where Instacart is seeing explosive growth.”.