Amid unprecedented recessionary headwinds caused by the coronavirus pandemic, China’s total ad spending will downshift considerably, but remain in positive territory at 0.4% growth. This will make it the only national market we cover to see net growth this year. Digital ad spending in China, meanwhile, will grow by 5.0%.

Already No. 1 in ecommerce, China will overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest overall retail market for the first time.

In a tumultuous year for advertising, every market we cover except China will experience a decline in ad spending, and Google will see its first ever contraction in digital ad revenues.

This report explores our latest forecast for time spent with media in China, and how the coronavirus pandemic will impact our forecast for 2020 and beyond.

The US will remain the largest market worldwide for total and digital advertising for the foreseeable future. China achieved rapid catch-up growth for a while, starting at one-quarter of the US spend in 2012 and rising to almost half by 2020.

China’s retail sector has been on a steady path to recovery over the past few months. According to June data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China, retail sales experienced a year-over-year drop of 1.8%, reaching $485.30 billion (RMB3.353 trillion). That was an increase of 1 percentage point over the prior month.